[music] This is Guru Focus Market Today, your afternoon market brief for Monday, July 13th. Here's where things stand. Oil prices surged as tensions between the United States and Iran intensified, raising inflation concerns and complicating the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.The collapse of the US Iran ceasefire has also shifted market focus to China's independent refineries which are now seen as key players in determining the direction of global oil prices. Turning now to the technology sector, Apple has ...

Market Performance and Trends - The BKX (KBW Bank Index) has outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 2x since August 2023, while the KRX (KBW Regional Banking Index) has outperformed by 3x since last fall [3] - The banking sector is currently experiencing a robust capital market and M&A (Mergers and Acquisitions) cycle [2] - Wall Street banks are expected to report record-level quarterly earnings [6] Investment Strategy and Stock Selection - Morgan Stanley is favored over Goldman Sachs due to its highly profitable private wealth business, which presents a high barrier to entry [5] - Goldman Sachs is not currently recommended despite expectations of a strong quarter, as the positive outlook is already priced into the stock [4][5] - The industry's underlying drivers remain positive, characterized by operating leverage, pristine credit quality, and improving profitability [3][9] Risk Factors and Capital Outlook - Regional banks face potential headwinds regarding margin peaking and the challenge of maintaining deposit growth relative to loan growth if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates [7] - The industry maintains a strong balance sheet, with a projected 9.7% tangible common equity ratio by the end of 2027, which is over 50% higher than levels seen prior to the global financial crisis [8] - Excess capital provides banks with strategic options, including business expansion, dividend increases, stock buybacks, or M&A activities [9]