Financial stocks have shown surprising resilience during recent market volatility, and one of the most widely followed names in the sector is Bank of America (BAC). Bank of America is one of the largest diversified financial institutions in the world, offering banking, lending, wealth management, and capital markets services to millions of customers. The company's scale, stable deposit base, and consistent… ...

证券研究报告 2025.12.10 理财 2026 年展望：存款搬家、资产配置新 叙事 SAC 执证编号：S0080522070019 SFC CE Ref：BTC623 ziyu.wang@cicc.com.cn 王子瑜 分析员 李少萌 分析员 张帅帅 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080524060011 shaomeng.li@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080516060001 SFC CE Ref：BHQ055 shuaishuai.zhang@cicc.com.cn 纵轴：相对值（%） 90 100 110 120 130 2024-12 2025-03 2025-06 2025-09 2025-12 沪深300 中金银行 中金一级行业：金融 资料来源：Wind，彭博资讯，中金公司研究部 ⚫ 银行 | 低利率时代的业务选择——1H25理财综述 (2025.07.29) 观点聚焦 投资建议 2025 年，理财行业在存款搬家、存续浮盈释放的背景下，实现了 超预期的增长。进入 2026 年，理财机构将拥有多资产布局、居民 储蓄率进一步下行的发展机遇，但同时也将面对平滑估值整改的 压力。 ...

That old line — you either own paper or you own hard assets — made sense in a world where inflation cycles were shorter, balance sheets were smaller, and capital still respected gravity. I heard it constantly when I started in this business back in 1982. You picked a side. Paper meant you thought growth was coming. Hard assets meant you thought trouble was coming.What’s changed is not the rule, but the environment it operates in.As we head into the final stretch of 2025, both stocks and precious metals are ...

Company Insights - Citigroup is highlighted for its effective restructuring under CEO Jane Fraser, focusing on divesting unprofitable businesses and enhancing its core operations [2][4] - The stock valuation of Citigroup is projected to reach approximately $148, based on comparisons to JP Morgan's valuation [3][4] - Citigroup has experienced significant stock price recovery, indicating potential for further upside despite previous lows [4] Industry Overview - The banking sector is currently benefiting from a growing economy, favorable credit quality, and strong capital markets, with investment banking fees reportedly up by 50% [6][9] - There is optimism regarding the asset wealth management business, which is seen as a key growth area for banks [6][5] - The integration of AI technologies is expected to enhance operational efficiency within banks, potentially allowing for a 2% reduction in expenses and improved profit margins [6][7] Market Conditions - The overall economic environment is characterized by positive trends, including capital expenditure growth, IPO market activity, and potential tax cuts, which are viewed as tailwinds for the banking sector [9][10] - However, there are concerns about potential headwinds, such as a slowdown in the economy or rising unemployment, which could reduce loan demand and impact net interest margins [10][14] - The IPO market's future performance is uncertain, particularly with expectations surrounding major tech companies, which could have broader implications for the banking sector [11][12]

Economic Forecast - The company is optimistic about the economic outlook for next year, citing five tailwinds that will contribute to GDP growth, including fiscal policy, monetary stimulus from Fed cuts, AI-related growth, supportive trade policy, and positive base effects from previous shutdowns [2][3]. K-Shaped Economy - The current economic situation is characterized as a K-shaped economy, where lower-income spending is stabilizing, supported by strong upper-income spending, which is expected to help stabilize the job market [3][5]. - The most concerning type of K-shaped economy would be one where upper-income spending is weak while lower-income spending is also declining, but this is not the case currently [4][5]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is closely tied to consumer spending, which typically leads job growth rather than the other way around, indicating that resilience in consumer spending bodes well for future labor market stability [7][8]. - The unemployment rate is expected to stabilize and potentially decrease in the latter half of next year, although significant acceleration in job growth is not anticipated [8]. Consumer Sentiment - Consumer sentiment has been weak despite strong consumer spending, and this disconnect may continue due to factors such as cumulative price increases and political polarization [9][10]. - The midterm elections are expected to influence trade policy positively, with the administration likely to focus on delivering favorable news for the economy and stock market, potentially through trade agreements [11].

Economic Overview - U.S. consumers are facing financial pressure due to restrictive monetary policy, persistent inflation in essential services, and uneven real wage growth, with total consumer debt exceeding $18 trillion by the end of Q3 2025, up from $17.7 trillion in January 2025, primarily driven by credit card balances, auto loans, and personal lending [1] - Aggregate consumer delinquency rates increased to 4.5% by the end of Q3 2025, the highest since early 2020, influenced by structural factors such as inflation in non-discretionary categories and the resumption of student loan repayments [3] Consumer Confidence - U.S. consumer confidence has weakened throughout 2025, with the Consumer Confidence Index declining for the fifth consecutive month in December, remaining below early-year levels, and the Expectations Index dropping from 104.1 in January to 70.7 in December, indicating growing pessimism about economic prospects [4] Banking Sector Analysis - Rising consumer credit stress may lead to higher loan defaults and delinquencies, prompting banks to increase provisions and potentially hurting profits, while weaker demand for new loans and tighter lending standards could limit interest income [2] - Banks with strong capitalization, diversified revenue streams, and solid liquidity, such as Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), and U.S. Bancorp (USB), are better positioned to withstand these pressures [2] Bank of America (BAC) - BAC reported total assets of $3.40 trillion as of September 30, 2025, with resilient asset quality and a 4.8% year-over-year decline in net charge-offs, reflecting improved portfolio performance [10][11] - The bank plans to open over 150 financial centers by 2027, supporting sustainable revenue growth while maintaining cost discipline [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BAC's 2026 earnings is $4.33 per share, indicating a 13.9% increase from the prior year [14] Wells Fargo (WFC) - WFC, with $2.06 trillion in assets as of September 30, 2025, has shown improving credit fundamentals, with a 17.2% year-over-year decline in net charge-offs and a 19% decrease in provisions for credit losses [17][18] - The removal of the longstanding asset cap allows WFC to expand deposits and grow its loan portfolio, supporting stronger earnings generation [19] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects WFC's 2026 earnings at $7.01 per share, suggesting an 11.7% increase from the prior year's actual [22] U.S. Bancorp (USB) - USB, headquartered in Minneapolis, MN, has demonstrated gradual improvement in asset quality, with a 4.1% year-over-year decline in provisions for credit losses and an 8.3% decrease in net charge-offs [25][26] - The bank is focusing on expanding its market presence and fee-based income through targeted acquisitions and partnerships, which are expected to support loan growth and improve earnings durability [27][28] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for USB's 2026 earnings stands at $4.89 per share, indicating a 7.5% increase from the prior year's actual [30]

格隆汇12月30日｜美国银行CEO莫伊尼汉(Brian Moynihan)近日批评市场对美联储利率变动的关注已达 到"痴迷过度"的程度。他强调，民营部门，包括小型、中型和大型企业以及企业家们，才是驱动经济成 长的主要力量。莫伊尼汉指出，美联储的职责仅在危机时期，例如在金融冲击下作为"最后贷款人"来稳 定市场与物价时才最为关键。他坦言，在非危机时刻，大家其实不应该感觉到它的存在。 ...

在年末最后几个交易日缺乏明显催化剂的背景下，周二股市难以凝聚动能，美元维持跌势，在岸人民币 一举突破7关口。白银和黄金则在从历史高位大幅回落后重新企稳。 截至发稿，道指期货跌0.06%，标普500指数期货跌0.07%，纳指期货跌0.10%。 欧洲与亚洲股市相关指标小幅波动。周二是包括德国、日本和韩国在内的多个股市今年的最后一个交易 日。 欧洲斯托克600指数今年上涨16%，不断刷新历史高位，并在以美元计价的表现上超越标普500指数。银 行板块领涨，年内大涨65%，有望创下自1997年以来最大年度涨幅，主要受益于强劲盈利表现以及慷慨 的股东回报。 标普500指数期货基本持平，此前美国基准股指连续两个交易日下跌。 全球股市乐观跨年 尽管近期行情表现平淡，全球股市仍有望实现连续第三年年度上涨。MSCI全球股票指数2025年累计上 涨约21%，并有望录得2019年以来最佳年度表现。 新加坡SGMC Capital高级合伙人Mohit Mirpuri表示："这轮回撤更像是健康的整理，而非趋势发生变 化。" 从历史规律看，投资者在迈入新一年之际有理由保持乐观。彭博汇编数据显示，在过去10个年份的1 月，该指数平均上涨1. ...

Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:BAC) CEO Brian Moynihan says America's fixation on Federal Reserve rate moves has overshadowed the private sector's role in powering the economy, even as mounting political pressure raises fears over the central bank's independence.Moynihan Says Fed Focus Distracts From Private-Sector StrengthOn Sunday, in an interview on CBS News' Face the Nation, Moynihan argued the U.S. economy is "much bigger" than the Federal Reserve and urged Americans not to treat small rate changes as dec ...

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC) is included among the 10 Cash-Rich Stocks to Buy Now. Bank of America (BAC) Estimates Refreshed After Keefe Bruyette Review Photo by Dan Dennis on Unsplash On December 17, Keefe Bruyette analyst Christopher McGratty raised the firm’s price target on Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC) to $64 from $58 and kept an Outperform rating on the shares. The update followed recent conferences and meetings with management, which led the firm to refresh its estimates. Ear ...