ORIENT CABLE (NBO)(SH:603606) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-15 00:31Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance slightly underperformed market expectations, primarily due to the early recognition of revenue from European projects and the larger scale of multiple projects requiring both supply and installation, leading to a delayed revenue recognition schedule [1] Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company reported revenue of 4.432 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.95%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 473 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.57% [1] - For 2Q25, revenue was 2.285 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 17.13%, and net profit was 192 million yuan, down 49.56% year-on-year [1] - The company’s power cables and marine engineering segments showed strong profitability, with gross margins of 10.8% and 29.1% respectively in 1H25 [1] Order Backlog and Inventory - As of August 12, 2025, the company had a strong order backlog totaling 19.6 billion yuan, with 11 billion yuan from submarine cables and high-voltage cables, and 3.6 billion yuan from marine equipment and engineering operations, marking a historical high [2] - The company’s inventory stood at 3.12 billion yuan and contract liabilities at 1.67 billion yuan, indicating a robust production trend [2] Development Trends - The company is expected to emerge from the transitional period post-offshore wind parity in 2025, entering a phase of sustained order and profit growth, particularly in ultra-high voltage submarine cable products [3] - A continuous order fulfillment cycle is anticipated to start from 4Q24, with the company likely maintaining an advantage in ultra-high voltage cable orders [3] - The company is projected to reach a revenue recognition turning point in 3Q25, with an increase in the revenue share from ultra-high voltage products expected to structurally enhance profitability [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down by 7.8% to 1.61 billion yuan, while the 2026 profit forecast remains unchanged at 2.31 billion yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 21.9 and 15.3 for 2025 and 2026 respectively [4] - Given the robust order backlog and the ongoing cycle of order and profit growth, the company maintains an outperform rating with a target price of 66.47 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 29.3% from the current stock price [4]