证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025 年 07 月 23 日 风电周报（2025.7.14-2025.7.20） 英国新规放宽 AR7 海风准入门槛，浙江深远海装备基地建设持续推 进 | 股票 | 股票 | 投资 | EPS （元） | | PE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | 2025E | 2026E | 2025E | 2026E | | 002202.SZ | 金风科技 | 买入 | 0.7 | 0.85 | 14.36 | 11.82 | | 002487.SZ | 大金重工 | 买入 | 1.41 | 1.98 | 23.03 | 16.4 | | 300129.SZ | 泰胜风能 | 增持 | 0.37 | 0.49 | 19.92 | 15.04 | | 300443.SZ | 金雷股份 | 增持 | 1.16 | 1.57 | 19.35 | 14.3 | | 300772.SZ | 运达股份 | 买入 | 0.88 | 1.14 | 14.82 | 11.44 | | 603062.SH | ...

优必选 Walker S2 实现全天候作业 随着国内外企业布局加速&AI 技术突破，人形机器有望迎来量产 落地时点。在降本需求的驱动下，人形机器人核心零部件的国 产替代需求强烈，市场空间广阔，率先取得突破的国内企业有 望深度受益。 2.新能源汽车 证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 7 月 20 日 [Table_Title] 英国放宽 AR7 海上风电准入门槛，关注光储边际变 化 [Table_Title2] 电力设备与新能源行业周观察 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要 1.人形机器人 多款新车即将上市 我们认为，新能源汽车进入深度渗透的阶段，高性价比车型为 销售者带来更好的体验感，是扩大销售规模的核心推动力。新 车型的发布，短期有望推动关键环节排产上升以及国内销量增 长，中长期有助于新能源汽车行业稳健发展，看好核心供应商 相应机遇。 3.新能源 上游原材料价格上涨，价格有望向下传导 反内卷背景下硅料价格大幅上涨，本周硅片、电池片价格均有 所上调，我们认为，应当重视光伏产业链后续顺价逻辑：①上 游原材料价格上调，后续组件价格有望向上，按合理利润测 算，短期具备反弹空间 ...

子行业周度核心观点： 光伏&储能：硅料价格连续上涨后，光伏产业链涨价趋势向中游硅片电池环节成功传导，组件端分布式订单报价及集 采投标价格亦有上浮；本周两家硅料企业先后发布公告澄清市场传闻，或从侧面反映出此轮针对光伏行业"反内卷" 的价格监管力度较大；后续重点关注：价格管控持续性、潜在违规行为处罚力度、涨价后的需求端影响（潜在刺激需 求的对冲政策）、以及更重要的针对供给端的开工率限制/产能淘汰政策。 风电：英国 AR7 CfD 拍卖计划进一步改革落地，改革要求放宽固定式海风项目投标要求并延长中标后的差价合约合同 期限，预计将带动本轮英国海风招标规模超预期，重点推荐有望受益于英国海风招标超预期从而获取订单的大金重工、 东方电缆、明阳智能。 锂电：氧化物聚合物路线的半固态/全固态电池有望率先进入商业化推广。氧化物路线存在电导率较低问题，聚合物 存在常温性能衰减问题，行业内企业分别采用新的技术，突破相关瓶颈，使得氧化物/聚合物固态电池实现较液态电 池更优的安全性，同时不牺牲能量密度、循环寿命、倍率性能，部分性能提升，且成本提升有限，已具备相对明确的 产业化落地前景；另外，锂金属负极的应用也直接打开了氧化物、聚合物电解 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the wind power sector, with specific stock recommendations including Jin Feng Technology and Yun Da Co., Ltd. [1][6] Core Insights - The wind power industry is experiencing significant growth, with a 134.21% year-on-year increase in new installations in the first five months of 2025, totaling 46.28 GW [1][27] - The report highlights the successful international expansion of domestic wind turbine manufacturers, with a 43% increase in wind turbine exports in Q1 2025 [2] - The report notes a decline in bidding prices for offshore wind turbines, with an average price of 3266.17 RMB/kW [2][49] Industry Dynamics - The Zhejiang Provincial Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines for the transitional pricing policy for renewable energy, effective from June 1, 2025 [1][11] - The report tracks stock performance, noting that the wind power equipment index has a TTM P/E ratio of 32.89 and an MRQ P/B ratio of 1.64 [5][15] - The report indicates that the offshore wind power market is expected to grow significantly, driven by new technology and larger turbine sizes [6] Market Performance - The wind power equipment sector saw a price increase of 0.72% during the week of July 7-11, 2025, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [15][20] - The top-performing stocks in the wind power sector included Shangwei New Materials and Jushi Technology, with increases of 72.88% and 8.98%, respectively [22][24] Installation Data - As of May 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power in China reached approximately 567.49 GW, with a year-on-year growth of 23.10% [27][36] - The report details that land-based wind power installations decreased by 7.90% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while offshore installations increased by 42.03% [2][27] Material Prices - The report notes fluctuations in raw material prices, with increases in rebar and scrap steel prices, while copper prices have decreased [39][50] - Specific prices include rebar at 3113 RMB/ton and scrap steel at 2190.60 RMB/ton, reflecting recent market trends [39][44] Tendering and Pricing Trends - A total of 1743.50 MW of wind turbine projects were tendered during the week, with 33 land-based projects totaling 3477.50 MW [49][51] - The report emphasizes the competitive nature of the bidding process, with several leading manufacturers participating [49][52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The wind power index increased by 2.83%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.01 percentage points during the week of July 7 to July 11, 2025 [4][11] - The overall price-to-earnings ratio (PE TTM) for the Wind power index is 20.29 times [11] - GE is set to construct an 18MW offshore wind turbine prototype in Norway, indicating a significant step in offshore wind technology testing [5][10] - Domestic wind turbine manufacturers have surpassed their overseas counterparts in terms of single-unit capacity, with several companies already producing or installing 16-18MW offshore wind turbines [5][10] - Aiko Solar reported a turnaround in Q2 2025, achieving a net profit of 0.2-1.3 billion yuan, indicating improved operational conditions [5] - Shandong's new energy storage system set a record with a total capacity of 8.25 million kilowatts, highlighting the growing importance of energy storage in the power system [6] Summary by Sections Wind Power - GE Vernova's subsidiary will build an 18MW offshore wind turbine in Norway, part of its offshore wind technology testing plan [5][10] - The report notes that overseas companies face challenges in developing larger turbines due to long development cycles and financial conditions [5][10] - Domestic manufacturers are rapidly advancing in turbine capacity, creating a technological advantage for exports [5][10] Solar Power - Aiko Solar's Q2 2025 results show a significant improvement, with a net profit turnaround attributed to optimized product structure and increased overseas sales [5] Energy Storage & Hydrogen - Shandong's energy storage system achieved a record discharge capacity, emphasizing the critical role of energy storage in balancing power supply and demand [6] - The report anticipates a new market-driven business model for energy storage following the removal of mandatory storage policies [6] Investment Recommendations - In wind power, the report suggests focusing on domestic demand growth and investment opportunities in offshore wind turbine exports [6] - For solar power, it recommends monitoring structural opportunities within the BC industry [6] - In energy storage, it highlights potential in overseas markets and recommends companies with strong global competitiveness [6] - In hydrogen, it advises attention to companies involved in green hydrogen project investments [6]

Summary of Wind Power Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The wind power industry is expected to see significant growth in 2024, with a notable increase in bidding volumes for wind projects. Although there may be a slight slowdown in onshore wind power at the beginning of 2025, acceleration is anticipated in the second half of the year. [1][3] - Offshore wind power is projected to double its installed capacity by 2025, driven by expedited project approvals. Future focus will be on deep-sea development. [1][4] Key Insights - **Onshore Wind Power**: - Installed capacity is expected to exceed 100GW in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 25%-30%. This growth is primarily due to a 70%-80% increase in bidding volumes in 2024. [3] - The impact of policy document 136 is expected to cause a temporary decline in bidding in early 2025, but project initiation is expected to accelerate later in the year. [3][10] - **Offshore Wind Power**: - Expected installed capacity for 2025 is between 8-10GW, representing over 100% year-on-year growth. [4] - The approval of offshore wind projects is progressing well, particularly in Jiangsu and Guangdong provinces. [12] - **European Market Opportunities**: - The European offshore wind market presents significant opportunities for Chinese companies, with a 46% year-on-year increase in auction volumes for 2024. [5] - New emerging markets for onshore wind power are also opening up due to declining prices, providing further opportunities for Chinese enterprises. [5] Industry Segments - **Submarine Cables and Towers**: - The submarine cable sector is performing well, with high profit margins maintained. Chinese companies are actively expanding into the European market and securing orders. [1][6] - Tower manufacturing companies, such as Daikin Heavy Industries, are achieving significant profit increases by entering the European market. [2][6][17] - **Wind Turbine Manufacturing**: - Profitability in wind turbine manufacturing is improving due to stabilized domestic prices and high margins in overseas and deep-sea projects. [7] - The overall outlook for profitability in this sector is positive for the coming years. [7] - **Components Sector**: - The components sector is closely tied to onshore projects, with strong performance this year but potential pressure on growth next year due to price increases and market dynamics. [8][22] Challenges and Opportunities - Wind turbine companies face pressure on revenue from the implementation of policy document 136, which may lead to lower electricity prices affecting wind farm revenues. [9][20] - Despite these challenges, companies are increasing their market share overseas, which presents a promising growth avenue. [9][20] Market Trends - The submarine cable market is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of 20% from 2025 to 2030, with leading companies strengthening their market positions. [15] - The tower and monopile sectors are seeing significant growth, with overseas unit profitability significantly higher than domestic levels. [17][18] Recommendations - The focus should be on deep-sea and European offshore wind trends, with strong recommendations for companies like Dongfang Cable and Zhongtian Technology due to their expected benefits from high and low voltage cable penetration and overseas orders. [23] - In the onshore wind segment, companies such as Goldwind, Sany, Mingyang, and Yunda are recommended based on domestic and international market dynamics. [23]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is expected to accelerate towards mass production due to breakthroughs in AI technology and increasing domestic and international enterprise layouts, with strong demand for domestic replacement of core components [12][15] - The domestic new energy vehicle (NEV) market is experiencing rapid growth, with production and sales in June exceeding 25% year-on-year, driven by technological advancements in vehicle performance [16][18] - The photovoltaic industry chain has seen a significant price increase across the board, with policies promoting orderly competition and a solidified industry foundation [24][29] - The approval of the UK's 1.5GW Mona offshore wind project marks a significant advancement in the European offshore wind sector, with expectations for further auctions and orders in the second half of the year [25][27] Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is witnessing increased participation from major tech companies, with a focus on the T-chain and domestic supply chain developments, indicating a robust market opportunity [12][15] - Key components such as dexterous hands and lightweight materials are expected to see significant advancements, enhancing the efficiency and application of humanoid robots [13][15] New Energy Vehicles - The NEV sector is in a growth phase, with new models enhancing performance and cost-effectiveness, supported by advancements in solid-state batteries and other technologies [16][18] - The demand for lithium battery materials is expected to expand due to the recovery of the consumer electronics market and the growth of energy storage applications [20][22] Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a price surge due to supply chain adjustments and policy support, with specific beneficiaries identified in the silicon material and battery sectors [24][29] - The market is expected to stabilize as inventory levels decrease and production capacity is adjusted, with a focus on high-efficiency products and new technologies [30][32] Offshore Wind Power - The approval of the Mona offshore wind project is anticipated to stimulate further developments in the offshore wind sector across Europe, with domestic companies poised to benefit from upcoming orders [25][27] - The demand for offshore wind components is expected to rise, driven by both domestic and international projects, creating opportunities for companies involved in the supply chain [43][45]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide specific investment ratings for the industry segments [2]. Core Insights - The overall strategy emphasizes the evolution of the supply side in the new energy sector, focusing on innovation and avoiding "involution" in the market [3][5]. - The new energy vehicle supply chain is entering a new cycle, with companies like CATL benefiting from collaborations with tech giants like Xiaomi and Huawei [3][21]. - The lithium battery sector is expected to see a positive outlook, with production forecasted to exceed 130 GWh in July, marking a nearly 40% year-on-year increase [4][35]. - The photovoltaic industry is facing challenges due to overcapacity and competition, but recent government measures aim to optimize supply and stabilize the market [5][25]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicle Supply Chain - The downstream landscape is evolving, with companies like CATL collaborating with automakers to enhance production efficiency and shorten delivery times [3][27]. - The launch of Xiaomi's YU7 has exceeded expectations, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards valuing emotional and intelligent experiences in vehicles [21][22]. Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery production is projected to grow, with significant investments in high-end products and solid-state technologies [4][35]. - Companies like Fulin Precision and Enjie are expanding their production capabilities, focusing on high-performance lithium iron phosphate and solid-state battery materials [4][31]. Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic sector is expected to confirm a mid-term bottom as supply-side optimization measures are implemented [5][25]. - Major glass manufacturers in the photovoltaic industry plan to reduce production by 30% starting in July to address overcapacity issues [5][25]. Offshore Market Opportunities - Leading companies like EVE Energy are investing in overseas projects, such as a new energy storage project in Malaysia worth up to 8.654 billion yuan [4][22]. - The establishment of independent pricing systems and production capacities in overseas markets is seen as a strategy to enhance profitability [4][22]. AI and New Energy Integration - The integration of AI with new energy sectors is highlighted, with companies exploring innovative applications and market breakthroughs [8][21]. - The report notes the acceleration of controlled nuclear fusion technology, with companies like CFS partnering with Google for future energy supply [8][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the focus on offshore wind power development and the need to combat price competition in the photovoltaic sector, suggesting a shift towards quality improvement and innovation [6][7]. - The offshore wind market is expected to grow due to supportive policies and decreasing investment costs, while the photovoltaic sector faces challenges with price declines and profitability pressures [6][7]. Summary by Sections Wind Power - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting emphasized the importance of developing offshore wind power as part of the marine economy, aiming for orderly construction and quality improvement [11]. - The wind power index increased by 1.3% over the week, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index by 0.24 percentage points, with a current PE ratio of 19.69 times [12]. - Investment opportunities are identified in domestic offshore wind demand, recovery of profitability, and advancements in floating wind technology, with recommended companies including Mingyang Smart Energy, Goldwind Technology, and Dongfang Cable [7][18]. Photovoltaics - The report discusses the government's focus on addressing price competition in the photovoltaic industry, with expectations of continued price declines in the supply chain [6]. - The current PE ratio for the photovoltaic sector is approximately 31.75 times, indicating a challenging environment for profitability [5]. - Structural opportunities are suggested, with recommended companies including Dier Laser, Aiko Solar, and Longi Green Energy [7]. Energy Storage & Hydrogen - A series of independent energy storage projects have commenced in Inner Mongolia, indicating a push for new energy storage solutions [7]. - The report anticipates a resurgence in demand for new energy storage following a phase of adjustment, with investment opportunities in companies like Sungrow Power and Deye Technology [7]. - The hydrogen sector is highlighted for its potential, with a focus on companies involved in green hydrogen project investments, recommending Jilin Electric Power [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electric equipment and renewable energy industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1]. Core Insights - The "Inflation Reduction Act" in the U.S. has strengthened policies for grid and energy storage, extending the tax credit timeline for energy storage from 2032 to 2036, which may lead to increased shipment volumes from the Chinese supply chain within the year [1]. - The Guangdong offshore wind power project at Sanshan Island is progressing, with the engineering survey design candidate announcement for the China Resources Yangjiang Sanshan Island offshore wind farm project [1]. Summary by Sections Energy Storage and Grid - The "Inflation Reduction Act" signed by President Trump on July 4th includes a $1 billion allocation for grid reliability construction, energy storage for power generation facilities, and transmission infrastructure upgrades, focusing on long-duration energy storage technology demonstration projects and microgrid storage systems in remote areas [3]. - The tax credit for energy storage has been extended to 2036, with a phased reduction policy. Projects starting construction by the end of 2033 will receive a 100% credit, reducing to 75% in 2034, 50% in 2035, and ceasing after 2036, providing a longer policy support window [3]. Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - The act stipulates that energy storage projects starting construction after December 31, 2025, involving certain foreign entities will not qualify for investment tax credits (ITC) and production tax credits (PTC). This includes entities from China and specific battery manufacturers [4]. - There may be a short-term increase in shipment volumes from Chinese energy storage companies before the end of 2025 due to the new regulations [4]. Market Projections - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects a 78% increase in large-scale energy storage installations in the U.S. by 2025, with an expected total of 18.55 GW for the year [5]. Investment Recommendations - For electric equipment, it is recommended to focus on companies with domestic production capabilities in the U.S. that can participate in grid reliability construction, including Jinpan Technology and Igor [2][10]. - For offshore wind power, companies such as Dongfang Electric, Dongfang Cable, and Times New Material are suggested for investment [2][11].