宝城期货：铁矿石高位整理

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore prices have been steadily rising since August, with the 2601 contract increasing by 7.28% from its low, approaching previous highs. The spot price index for iron ore is reported at $103.30 per ton, with mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port showing increases between 14 to 39 yuan per ton [1] Group 1: Factors Supporting Price Increase - The recent rise in mineral prices is supported by two main factors: the ongoing "anti-involution" trading logic creating a warm atmosphere in the commodity market, particularly strong performance in the coking coal sector, and the implementation of strict production limits in Tangshan for rebar and rod mills [2] - Despite being in a traditional off-season, the overall decline in iron ore consumption is limited, with steel mills maintaining strong demand. As of the week ending August 8, the average daily pig iron output from 247 sample steel mills was 2.4032 million tons, and daily consumption of imported ore was 2.9814 million tons, both showing year-on-year increases [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of iron ore is currently tight, with a weekly arrival volume of 25.716 million tons at 47 domestic ports, a decrease of 508,000 tons week-on-week. Global shipments also fell by 1.507 million tons [4] - Domestic mining production is weakening, with the capacity utilization rate of 126 mining enterprises at 62.06%, and daily output of iron concentrate at 391,600 tons, both at year-to-date lows. This situation is expected to continue, supporting higher iron ore prices [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - The overall market remains stable with resilient demand, providing continued support for iron ore prices. However, the relative high valuation of iron ore and the unsustainable nature of supply contraction may lead to a period of high-level consolidation in the future [4]