Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a structural change in the financial landscape, with a significant increase in non-bank deposits and a decrease in household deposits, suggesting a trend of "deposit migration" towards financial products [1][2] - Non-bank deposits surged by 2.14 trillion yuan in July, driven by a recovering capital market and declining bank deposit rates, leading residents to seek higher returns [1][3] - The M2 growth rate rebounded to 8.8% in July, indicating an increase in liquidity and a shift in preference from fixed-term to demand deposits for investment or consumption [1][2] Group 2 - There is a potential for a significant flow of household deposits into capital markets, with approximately 105 trillion yuan of time deposits maturing by 2025, which could provide substantial incremental funds to the capital market [2][3] - Despite the long-term trend of wealth shifting towards financial assets, the current low proportion of equity-based financial products and residents' risk aversion indicate that a stable trend of large-scale "migration" has not yet formed [2][3] - The recent negative growth in credit data highlights weak financing demand in the real economy, contrasting with the recovery in social financing and M1, indicating a lack of internal economic momentum [2][3] Group 3 - The expectation for interest rate cuts has cooled, with recent fiscal subsidy policies reducing the necessity for broad rate cuts, while structural policies aim to support the real economy more precisely [3] - The trend of household deposits moving to non-bank institutions signals an increase in fund activation, providing a positive outlook for the capital market [3] - The large volume of maturing deposits presents a potential foundation for market entry, but the transition from passive to active investment by residents is crucial for supporting healthy capital market development and financing needs of the real economy [3]
105万亿定存到期潮来袭!“存款搬家”入市趋势增强,能否催生慢牛行情?
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-15 01:23