美联储降息梦碎！美国PPI飙至3.3%引爆全球资产震荡

Group 1 - The core inflation measure, PPI, surged by 3.3% year-on-year, leading to a significant market reaction and a loss of $900 billion in global capital market value [1][3] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September increased from 0% to 7.5%, while the expectation for a 50 basis point rate cut was eliminated [3] - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan revised their rate cut predictions downward, acknowledging that inflation pressures exceeded their models [3] Group 2 - Service prices saw a monthly increase of 2%, and wholesale prices for machinery rose by 3.8%, the highest since March 2022, indicating strong cost pressures [3] - Commodity prices rebounded, with vegetable and meat prices contributing to a 0.7% rise in PPI, and egg prices skyrocketing by 21% over three months [3] - Historical data revisions showed June PPI adjusted from 2.3% to 2.4%, and core PPI jumped from 2.6% to 3.7%, confirming persistent inflation [3] Group 3 - The U.S. national debt surpassed $37 trillion, with annual interest payments reaching $1.1 trillion, creating pressure for the government to lower interest rates [3] - Political pressures are mounting on the Federal Reserve, with attempts to influence the September voting outcome through personnel changes [3] - The independence of the central bank is under threat due to persistent inflation and a crisis of data credibility following the dismissal of the labor statistics chief [3] Group 4 - The market experienced a cross-asset sell-off, with the Nasdaq futures dropping by 2.1% and a significant rise in the 10-year Treasury yield [4] - Manufacturing costs are being restructured, with hot-rolled steel prices increasing by $42 per ton, impacting profit margins for exporting companies [4] - Retailers like Walmart and Target are adjusting their procurement strategies in response to changing consumer behavior and economic conditions [4] Group 5 - Three potential scenarios for the September Federal Reserve meeting were outlined, with varying probabilities for hawkish and dovish outcomes [4] - The hawkish scenario could lead to a significant drop in the S&P 500, while a dovish compromise might result in a symbolic rate cut [4] - A prolonged policy stalemate could drive capital towards defensive assets, indicating a shift in investment strategies [4] Group 6 - The current economic environment is characterized by high levels of national debt impacting monetary policy independence [5] - The divergence in the safe-haven logic between gold and Bitcoin reflects differing views on the stability of fiat currencies [5] - The countdown for the 90-day tariff buffer imposed by Trump is affecting global trade dynamics, particularly for Chinese manufacturers [5]