2008年“致命组合”重演！美银警告：美元恐将踏上暴跌之路

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America warns that the dollar may face a "deadly combination" of rising annual inflation while the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, a scenario not seen in nearly two decades [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Context - The last occurrence of suppressed real policy rates was from the second half of 2007 to the first half of 2008, during which the dollar index fell by approximately 8% [3]. - Historical analysis indicates that the dollar's depreciation begins before the Fed's rate cuts and continues afterward, similar to the current situation [3]. Group 2: Current Economic Indicators - The Fed is currently balancing economic uncertainty surrounding President Trump's tariffs and a weak labor market outlook [3]. - Traders are pricing in an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's next meeting, despite inflation accelerating to its fastest pace since January [3]. Group 3: Inflation and Projections - Bank of America estimates that even if the overall CPI remains around 0.1% monthly by year-end, the annual rate could reach approximately 2.9%, higher than mid-2025 projections [3]. - The dollar index has declined by about 1.3% in August and approximately 8% in 2025, marking the worst annual start since 2017 [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Bank of America recently encouraged traders to buy euros against the dollar, targeting a rise of about 3% to around 1.20 by year-end [3].