情绪退潮叠加基本面压力，氧化铝期价冲高回落

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in alumina futures prices was driven by news from Shanxi Province regarding adjustments in mining rights, but the market has since cooled down, leading to a decline in prices as speculative sentiment wanes [1][2]. Supply Side - Shanxi's decision aims to enhance the protection of strategic mineral resources, including bauxite, by centralizing mining rights management [1]. - China's bauxite supply has been decreasing annually due to reduced mineral resources and stricter mining controls, leading to increased imports by local alumina companies to maintain production [1][2]. - Recent elections in Guinea have led to a relaxation of aluminum ore export policies, which is expected to increase overseas ore supply [2]. - Domestic alumina production capacity is growing, but there is a regional imbalance in output, with higher production in the north compared to the south [2][3]. - As of August 7, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, with an operating capacity of 94.4 million tons, resulting in an operating rate of 82.23% [2]. Demand Side - The demand for alumina is expected to weaken as the replenishment of raw materials and inventory reduction slows down, coupled with limited growth in demand for casting aluminum alloys [2][3]. - Inventory levels for alumina are rising, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange's alumina delivery warehouse inventory increasing from under 5,000 tons to around 40,000 tons recently [3]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the fundamentals for alumina are under pressure, leading to weak price performance [3]. - The increase in registered warehouse receipts for alumina in August may alleviate previous tightness in the market, but bearish sentiment persists due to expectations of weak future prices [3][4]. - Despite the bearish outlook, factors such as the Shanxi mining rights news and stable overseas ore prices may limit the downside for alumina futures in the short term [3][4]. - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern, fluctuating around cost levels, influenced by seasonal demand and potential supply adjustments [4].