Zhong Guo Jing Ying Bao·2025-08-15 03:29Core Viewpoint - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) is experiencing a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to falling coal prices and a supply-demand imbalance in the coal market [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit of approximately 4.65 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of about 2.9 billion yuan compared to 7.6 billion yuan in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year decline of 38% [1]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company's net profit was 2.71 billion yuan, down 27.89% from the previous year [2]. Group 2: Coal Market Analysis - The decline in performance is attributed to a downward trend in coal prices, with the domestic coal market experiencing a supply-demand imbalance since 2025 [2][4]. - The price of Q5000 thermal coal in Shandong dropped to 535-560 yuan per ton by June 27, 2025, a decrease of 162.5 yuan per ton (22.89%) from the end of 2024, with an average price of approximately 619.35 yuan per ton, down 184.37 yuan per ton (22.94%) year-on-year [2]. - Overall, coal prices fell by more than 20% in the first half of 2025 [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The oversupply in the coal market is due to high domestic coal production and record-high port coal inventories, despite a slight decrease in imported coal [4]. - Demand for coal is primarily driven by non-electric industries and fluctuating speculative demand from traders, with limited demand from the power sector [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the coal market may see some improvement in the second half of 2025, with potential demand increases during peak seasons, although the overall supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist [4]. - The chemical business of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company is showing positive growth, with production of chemical products reaching 2.414 million tons, an increase of 11.59%, and sales of 2.018 million tons, up 7.27% year-on-year [5]. Group 5: Chemical Business Performance - The chemical segment, while smaller compared to coal operations, has been performing well, contributing approximately 500 million yuan in revenue in the first quarter of 2025 [5]. - The decline in coal prices has reduced costs for the chemical business, as about 70% of its costs are linked to coal prices, providing support for profitability [5].