Core Viewpoint - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with revenue of 3.2 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 24%, primarily due to delays in the launch of new projects and revenue recognition from short dramas [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Adjusted net profit, excluding new projects, was 550 million RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 36%, with an adjusted net profit margin of 17% [1] - Online business revenue saw a slight increase of 2% year-on-year, with self-owned channel MAU remaining stable at 103 million and paying users increasing by 5% to 9.2 million [1] - Monthly average spending per user remained stable at 31 RMB, while revenue from Tencent channels decreased by 26% due to reduced distribution of free content [1] Group 2: Business Overview - The number of new signed works with revenue exceeding one million RMB increased by 63% year-on-year, and the number of new signed authors with subscriptions over ten thousand rose by 45% [1] - Copyright operation revenue decreased by 46% due to delays in new project launches and revenue recognition issues with short dramas [1] - IP derivative products continued to show high growth, with GMV reaching 480 million RMB, nearing the total for the entire year of 2024, and a 60% hit rate for adaptations of mid-tier IPs [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company maintains a stable revenue expectation for online business in 2025, considering the resilience of core paid platforms and increased cooperation with third-party platforms to offset the impact of Tencent channel contraction [2] - Copyright operation revenue is expected to decline by 15% year-on-year, while core IP operation revenue is projected to increase by 4% due to the expansion of IP derivative product categories [2] - Upcoming content includes several new series and films, which are expected to enrich the company's offerings in the second half of the year [2] Group 4: Valuation and Investment Outlook - The company has adjusted its valuation to 39 HKD for 2026, up from 28 HKD, based on an average P/E ratio of 25 times for comparable companies [2] - The company maintains a leading position in high-quality IP reserves, with AIGC enabling cost reduction and efficiency improvements, and strategic investments in the toy industry chain expected to secure some production capacity [2] - The outlook for core profit growth is positive, leading to an upgrade to a buy rating [2]
阅文集团(0772.HK)：IP衍生品业务加速释放 上调评级至买入