Ge Long Hui·2025-08-15 03:57Core Viewpoint - HSBC's stock price is currently around 100.6 HKD, showing increased short-term volatility with a 4.7% fluctuation over the past five days, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears at a critical level [1][2]. Technical Analysis and Key Levels - Support levels for HSBC are identified at 96.5 HKD (short-term support) and 92.3 HKD (strong support), while resistance levels are at 104.4 HKD (recent high) and 108.5 HKD (yearly target) [2]. - The 10-day moving average (98.41 HKD) and 30-day moving average (98.16 HKD) have formed a "golden cross," but the stock price is nearing the upper Bollinger Band, making the ability to break through the psychological barrier of 100 HKD a focal point [2]. - There is speculation on whether HSBC will first retrace to the 96.5 HKD support if the broader Hong Kong market weakens, or if it will benefit from interest rate hike expectations to test higher levels [2]. Recent Performance and Investor Sentiment - In August, HSBC's stock price rose nearly 10% after a significant drop at the end of July, stabilizing around the 100 HKD mark [4]. - Investors are divided, with some seeing a double-top formation that could lead to a drop towards 90 HKD, while others believe the stock is on a stable upward trajectory [4]. Product Review and Strategy Insights - Recent product performance shows that UBS bull certificates have significantly outperformed the underlying stock, with one product rising 7% and another 10% despite only a 0.2% increase in the stock price [5]. - In the current market environment, investors are encouraged to consider UBS call options with a leverage of 17.3 times, particularly suitable for aggressive investors anticipating a breakout [7]. - For bearish investors, options with lower leverage and favorable implied volatility are also available, providing a range of choices depending on market outlook [7][11]. Market Volatility and Trading Opportunities - The current market volatility has increased the risk associated with bull and bear certificates, necessitating close monitoring of the distance between the stock price and the recovery price [11].