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美国ppi数据暴雷,黄金如期大跌,反弹后继续跌!
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-15 04:12

Core Viewpoint - The recent PPI data release in the U.S. has significantly altered market expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a decrease in the likelihood of a substantial rate cut in September [2][4][6]. Group 1: PPI Data Impact - The U.S. July PPI year-on-year rate was reported at 3.3%, significantly higher than the previous value of 2.4% and market expectations of 2.5% [2]. - The month-on-month PPI for July was 0.9%, also exceeding the previous value of 0.00% and market expectations of 0.20% [2]. - Experts noted that the impact of PPI data is more significant than that of CPI data, as PPI reflects price pressures at the production level [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Response - Following the PPI data release, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September dropped to around 85%, down from 100% [4]. - Comments from Federal Reserve officials indicated a shift in sentiment, with concerns about the necessity of a 50 basis point cut being dismissed [4]. - The core PCE inflation rate, a favored inflation measure by the Fed, is expected to rise from 2.8% to 2.9%, influenced by tariffs [4]. Group 3: Political Reactions - President Trump, who had previously pressured Fed Chair Powell for rate cuts, has remained silent following the PPI data release, indicating a shift in the political narrative [6]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has also begun to find excuses for previous statements regarding rate cuts, suggesting a retreat from aggressive rhetoric [6]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The gold market experienced significant volatility, with prices reaching a high of 3374.9 and a low of 3329.8, ultimately closing at 3334.9 [8]. - The market sentiment remains bearish, with expectations of further declines in gold prices, targeting levels around 3330 and potentially lower [9][11].