华金证券：给予博源化工增持评级

Core Viewpoint - 博源化工 reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but managed to achieve a quarter-on-quarter growth in Q2, indicating resilience amid challenging market conditions [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, 博源化工 achieved revenue of 5.916 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.31%, and a net profit of 743 million yuan, down 38.57% year-on-year [1]. - Q2 2025 saw revenue of 3.048 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 23.31% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.26% [1]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 31.79%, down 12.56 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 18.21%, down 7.94 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Operational Efficiency - The company faced challenges such as declining product prices and reduced gross margins but countered these through improved operational management and cost efficiency [2]. - In H1 2025, 博源化工 produced 5.1571 million tons of various products, including 3.3946 million tons of soda ash, 739,700 tons of sodium bicarbonate, and 882,300 tons of urea [2]. Resource Advantages - As of June 30, 2025, 博源化工 holds significant natural soda reserves across multiple mining sites, ensuring a stable resource base for future operations [3]. - The company has a production capacity of 6.8 million tons/year for soda ash, 1.5 million tons/year for sodium bicarbonate, and 1.54 million tons/year for urea, positioning it as a leading player in the domestic market [3]. Investment Outlook - 博源化工 is recognized as a rare leader in the domestic soda ash industry, with a strong resource base and ongoing efforts to enhance scale and cost advantages [4]. - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 13.159 billion yuan (originally 17.958 billion yuan), 15.358 billion yuan, and 16.709 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a slight decline in growth expectations [4].