丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨基础化工 [Table_Title] 化工复盘：前两轮周期牛市，阿尔法龙头表现几 何？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 前两轮周期牛市中，阿尔法龙头股价表现显著跑赢基础化工板块。这些龙头兼具供需改善叠加 成本优势（底部有盈利）带来的价格弹性和持续低成本扩张的成长性，在顺周期牛市中，它们 具备量价齐升的业绩驱动力，布局龙头带来超额收益。建议重视优质龙头的投资机会：万华化 学、华鲁恒升、龙佰集团、扬农化工、华峰化学和博源化工。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 SAC：S0490516100002 SFC：BUT911 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 基础化工 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 化工复盘：前两轮周期牛市，阿尔法龙头表现几 2] 何？ [Table_Summary2] 引言：为何此时关注周期牛市的龙头股价表现？ PPI 环比降幅持续收窄，2025 年 10 月实现转正。2025 年 7 月以来，中央财经委员会第六次 会议召开，带来了汹涌的"反内卷"浪潮，P ...

博源化工（000683.SZ）1月16日在投资者互动平台表示，阿拉善天然碱项目二期目前正在试车，正处于 装置调试、优化和完善阶段，设备运行参数、工艺匹配度等尚在优化过程中，暂未达到稳定量产状态。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：董秘你好，公司新产线是否具备稳定长久供应的能 力？ ...

博源化工 20260115 摘要 博源化工二期 100 万吨纯碱生产线预计 2026 年第一季度全面投产，剩 余 180 万吨产线预计 2026 年 1 月试生产。同时，公司计划在 2026 年 中旬投产 40 万吨小苏打项目和 120 万吨小苏打综合利用项目。 苏尼特碱业因装置老化、资源枯竭及成本高企等因素将永久停产，预计 资产减值约 2.7 亿元，计提后不再有进一步减值。此举或将优化公司整 体资产结构。 当前纯碱价格波动对博源化工盈利影响有限，中盐化学每吨利润不足 100 元，阿拉善地区每吨利润 200-300 元。2026 年 1 月价格略有下降， 每吨下跌十几至二十元，但现货市场相对稳定。 博源化工阿拉善一期和中盐化学纯碱装置基本满负荷运行，库存较少， 轻质纯碱库存也处于合理范围内，库存压力低于行业平均水平，显示出 较强的销售能力。 博源化工河南地区天然碱保有储量约为 1.23 亿吨，可持续开采 20 多年； 阿拉善地区天然碱储量为 10.78 亿吨，可支持矿山 40 多年服务年限， 采矿证到期后可续证，保障长期资源供应。 Q&A 博源化工近期纯碱的供给情况如何？ 博源化工在 2025 年 12 月启 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations on January 15, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly falling below 4100 points before recovering at the close. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.56% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 29.388 billion yuan, significantly down by over 10 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance Electronics Sector - The electronics sector saw a strong rally in the afternoon, with the electronic ETF (515260) rising by 1.88%, recovering its 5-day moving average. The sector attracted a net inflow of 16.862 billion yuan from institutional investors, leading all 31 primary industries [3][6] - Key stocks in the electronics sector included Unigroup Guowei, which hit a daily limit up of 10%, and Huazhong Microelectronics, which rose by 7.58% [4][5] Chemical Sector - The chemical sector also performed well, with the chemical ETF (516020) reaching a peak increase of 2.42% during the day and closing up by 1.43%, marking a new three-year high. The sector attracted 14.7 billion yuan in net inflows, leading the market [9][11] - Notable stocks included Tongcheng New Materials, which hit the daily limit up, and Hongda Co., which surged by 6.25% [9][13] AI and Robotics Sector - The AI and robotics sectors faced some challenges, with the general aviation ETF (159231) dropping by 3.56%. However, the ChiNext AI ETF (159363) and the Sci-Tech AI ETF (589520) also saw declines, indicating a mixed performance in this area [1][15] Investment Insights - Analysts from Huajin Securities believe that the recent adjustment of financing margin ratios will have a limited impact on A-share trends, as the market is currently in a slow bull phase supported by structural recovery in profits and low credit levels [2] - The electronics sector is expected to benefit from the U.S. government's recent imposition of tariffs on certain semiconductors, which may enhance domestic substitution sentiment [6] - The chemical industry is anticipated to experience a rebound in profitability as supply-demand dynamics stabilize, with AI-driven production capabilities expected to lead to new growth opportunities [13][14]

Group 1 - The chemical sector is leading the market with a significant increase, as evidenced by the chemical ETF (516020) rising by 0.99% [1] - Among the constituent stocks, rubber additives and phosphorus chemicals are showing strong performance, with Tongcheng New Materials hitting the daily limit and Hongda shares increasing by over 5% [1] - The overall trend indicates a positive outlook for the chemical industry, with expectations of a rebound in profitability and valuation in 2026 [3] Group 2 - Major lithium battery manufacturers are initiating large-scale equipment bidding, with reports of hundreds of GWh orders received, indicating a robust demand in the market [2] - It is projected that the new lithium battery production capacity will exceed 1 TWh by 2026, marking a historical high for new orders among equipment manufacturers [2] - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI sub-industry index, covering key themes such as AI computing power and new energy, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks [3]

Group 1 - The chemical sector is leading the market gains, with the basic chemical sector showing the highest increase among 30 CITIC primary industries, reflecting a 0.99% rise in the chemical ETF (516020) [1] - Key stocks in the sector include rubber additives and phosphorus chemicals, with notable performances from Tongcheng New Materials, which hit the daily limit, and Hongda Co., which rose over 5% [1][2] - The overall market sentiment indicates a strong rebound in the chemical sector, driven by significant orders from leading lithium battery manufacturers, with expectations of substantial growth in lithium battery production capacity by 2026 [2][3] Group 2 - Industry analysts predict that the chemical industry's profitability is likely to recover in 2026 after experiencing a downturn in 2025, with a new phase of supply-demand rebalancing beginning [3] - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry theme index, with nearly 50% of its holdings concentrated in large-cap leading stocks, providing investors with opportunities to capitalize on the sector's rebound [3] - The ETF includes exposure to various themes such as AI computing, anti-involution policies, and new energy, which are expected to drive growth in the chemical sector [3]

化工板块午后领涨两市，截至发稿，基础化工板块涨幅在30个中信一级行业中高居首位，反映化工板块 整体走势的化工ETF（516020）场内价格涨0.99%。 成份股方面，橡胶助剂、磷化工等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，彤程新材涨停，宏达股份大涨超 5%，广东宏大、博源化工、华鲁恒升等亦涨幅居前。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 · | | | | | F9 盘前盘玩 盛加 九转 图纸 工具 @ 0 | | 化工ETF O | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 516020(化工ETF) 14:21 价 0.917 图表 0.009(0.99%) 均价 0.920 版交量 590 IOPV 0.9166 2026 | | | | | | | | | | | | MAN | | | | | | 0.917 | | +0.009 +0.99% | | | | | | | | | | | SSE CNY 14:21:48 文明 ...

化工板块午后延续强势，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）持续红盘震荡，截至发稿，场内 价格涨0.77%。 成份股方面，磷化工、橡胶助剂、锂电等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，彤程新材涨停，宏达股份 大涨超4%，广东宏大、博源化工跟涨超3%。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入额 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | CI005006 | 基础化工(中信) | 134.47亿 | | 2 | CI005003 | 有色金属(中信) | 84.43亿 | | 3 | Cl005025 | 电子(中信) | 50.84亿 | | ব | CI005008 | 建材(中信) | 2006'9 | | ਦੇ | CI005023 | 房地产(中信) | 3.2542 | 化工板块场内热门布局工具化工ETF（516020）亦吸金不断。交易所数据显示，截至昨日（1月14 日），化工ETF（516020）近5个交易日中有4个交易日获资金净申购，合计净申购额超过3.1亿元；近 10个交易日，化工ETF（516020）累计吸金额更是超过6.3亿元。 值得注意的是，随着"反 ...

2020-2025年1-11月中国纯碱(碳酸钠)产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 上市企业：远兴能源（000683）,三友化工（600409）,山东海化（000822）,双环科技（000707）,氯碱化 工（600618）,金晶科技（600586）,湖北宜化（000422）,云图控股（002539）,和邦生物（603077） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国纯碱行业市场专项调研及竞争战略分析报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年11月中国纯碱(碳酸钠)产量为324万吨，同比下降0.5%；2025年1-11 月中国纯碱(碳酸钠)累计产量为3625.6万吨，累计增长4.7%。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Boyuan Chemical has experienced a decline in stock price, falling 0.54% to 7.33 CNY per share, with a total market value of 27.244 billion CNY and a cumulative drop of 6.36% over four consecutive days [1] - Boyuan Chemical's main business includes the production and sales of coal, methanol, fertilizers, soda ash, and sodium bicarbonate, with revenue composition being 60.01% from soda ash, 25.08% from urea, 12.88% from sodium bicarbonate, and 1.56% from other products [1] Group 2 - According to data, Bosera Fund holds a significant position in Boyuan Chemical through its Bosera Growth Selected Mixed A fund, which has 3.78% of its net value in Boyuan Chemical, ranking it as the fourth largest holding [2] - The Bosera Growth Selected Mixed A fund has experienced a floating loss of approximately 159,300 CNY today and a total floating loss of 1.9917 million CNY during the four-day decline [2] Group 3 - The fund managers of Bosera Growth Selected Mixed A are Zeng Hao and Wang Lingxiao, with Zeng having a tenure of 8 years and 20 days, achieving a best fund return of 142.95% during his management [3] - Wang Lingxiao has a tenure of 3 years and 284 days, with a best fund return of 64.99% during his management [3]