金老虎：川普言意相离！美俄峰会成焦点，黄金3352 弱势空

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to stronger-than-expected U.S. PPI data, cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts, and a temporary easing of geopolitical risks following the U.S.-Russia summit [3][5][6]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July rose by 0.9%, significantly exceeding market expectations of 0.2%, marking the largest monthly increase since June 2022 [3][4]. - Core PPI, excluding food and energy, also increased by 0.9%, well above the anticipated 0.3%, indicating persistent supply chain pressures and rising service prices [4][6]. - Initial jobless claims decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, lower than the expected 228,000, suggesting a robust labor market and reinforcing the Fed's stance on maintaining high interest rates [7][8]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Federal Reserve officials expressed caution regarding interest rate cuts, with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee emphasizing the need for more data to confirm inflation trends [5][6]. - The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September dropped from 50% to 30% following these comments, leading to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields [5][6]. - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 5.6 basis points to 4.2326%, further pressuring gold prices as investors preferred fixed-income assets over non-yielding gold [5][6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The U.S.-Russia summit in Alaska became a focal point, with initial threats from Trump easing during discussions, which alleviated market concerns over the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [6][7]. - The easing of geopolitical tensions led to a shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.04% to a record high [6][7]. - The International Energy Agency's warning of an oil supply surplus contributed to a decline in oil prices, reducing inflationary pressures and further diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6][7]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The overall market sentiment has shifted towards bearish for gold, with technical indicators suggesting a continuation of the downward trend [9]. - Gold prices are currently trading below the 5-day moving average of 3344, indicating a potential move towards the lower Bollinger Band at 3281 [9]. - The recommendation for trading strategy is to consider short positions on rebounds, reflecting the prevailing bearish outlook [9].