美联储内部爆发重大分歧：更大的问题是通胀还是就业？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces a critical decision regarding whether to lower interest rates in response to weak employment growth or to maintain rates due to persistent inflation concerns [1][2]. Economic Indicators - Since April, weak job growth has led some officials to consider a rate cut as early as next month, while others remain concerned about inflation [1]. - The average job growth over the past three months is only 35,000, significantly lower than the 123,000 average from the same period last year [2]. - The current Federal Reserve benchmark interest rate stands at 4.3% [1]. Inflation Concerns - Recent inflation reports show only a mild increase in consumer-level inflation, with little evidence that tariffs have significantly raised prices [2]. - Some officials believe that the focus should shift to supporting the job market rather than worrying about inflation, given the current economic conditions [2][3]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that the low unemployment rate of 4.2% indicates a still-robust job market despite the slowdown in job growth [2]. Tariff Impact - There are mixed opinions among Fed officials regarding the long-term impact of tariffs on inflation, with some believing that any price increases will be temporary [3][4]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that while tariffs may raise inflation in the short term, they are unlikely to force the Fed to maintain high rates for an extended period [3]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic warned that if tariffs lead manufacturers to relocate production back to the U.S. or to higher-wage countries, it could create long-term inflationary pressures [3][4]. Future Projections - The July wholesale price report indicated significant price increases before goods reach consumers, complicating the possibility of a one-time 0.5% rate cut in September [4]. - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that such a rate cut does not align with the current economic conditions and outlook [5]. - Economists suggest that the Fed may need to revise its inflation expectations upward, as current inflation is nearing the projected core inflation rate of 3.1% by year-end [5].