沪深300：政策利好期指估值，警惕回调风险

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of the central government's "anti-involution" policy is rising, which is expected to support valuation expansion in the futures market through measures such as production limits and capacity utilization adjustments [1] Group 1: Policy Impact - The central government's "anti-involution" policy aims to narrow the supply-demand gap in industries, enhancing the bargaining power of leading companies [1] - The improvement in July data, along with high margin trading balances and increased trading volume, indicates a sustained recovery in market risk appetite, supporting valuation expansion in futures [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The suspension of 24% tariffs for 90 days during the China-US Stockholm economic and trade talks alleviates uncertainties related to trade friction [1] - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut are rising, leading to a weaker dollar and a rebound in risk appetite [1] Group 3: Volatility and Investment Strategy - The recent volatility of the CSI 300 index is low, with a 20-day volatility of 0.11 and a 250-day volatility of 0.24, indicating a stable market environment [1] - The IH2509 futures are trading at a premium of 5.82 points, while the IM2509 futures are at a discount of 56.30 points, reflecting optimistic expectations for large-cap blue-chip stocks [1] - It is suggested to maintain a bullish outlook, but caution is advised regarding profit-taking and potential selling pressure after consecutive price increases, with options selling recommended to smooth out volatility risks [1]