特朗普普京会晤前夜，黄金突然跳水！地缘和平曙光竟成避险资产"毒药"？

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices are experiencing pressure, with spot gold trading around $3333 per ounce after a significant drop of 0.6% to $3335.25 per ounce on Thursday [1] - The recent U.S. economic data has diminished expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a correction in traditional safe-haven assets like gold [1] Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July rose by 3.3% year-on-year, significantly exceeding market expectations of 2.5%, marking the largest increase in nearly three years [3] - This inflation data suggests widespread cost increases across goods and services, impacting market expectations for Federal Reserve policy [3] - The likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in September has decreased, as indicated by St. Louis Fed President Bullard, who stated that such a cut is "not necessary" given the current employment and inflation conditions [3][4] Group 3: Employment Market and Policy Space - Initial jobless claims decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, below market expectations, indicating a stable labor market that provides the Federal Reserve with more policy adjustment space [4] - The stable employment market reduces the necessity for aggressive rate cuts, with the market now pricing in a more moderate expectation of 25 basis point cuts in September and October [4] Group 4: Currency and Bond Market Impact - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.5% to 98.25, the largest single-day increase in two and a half weeks, which diminishes gold's appeal to non-U.S. currency investors [5] - U.S. Treasury yields increased across the board, with the 10-year yield rising by 5.3 basis points to 4.293% and the 2-year yield surging by 5.4 basis points to 3.741%, further reducing the attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold [5] Group 5: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic long-term outlook for gold, despite short-term pressures, as the Federal Reserve faces a balancing act between combating inflation and supporting the economy [6] - Key upcoming data, such as the spending price index and remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, will be critical in shaping market expectations [6][10] Group 6: Geopolitical Dynamics - The upcoming meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin is drawing attention, with potential implications for geopolitical stability and market sentiment [9] - The situation in Ukraine remains a concern, as efforts to prevent a deal that could threaten Ukraine's security are ongoing [9] Group 7: Key Data and Events to Watch - Investors should closely monitor the upcoming U.S. core PCE inflation data, the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, and the August non-farm payroll report, as these will provide insights into economic conditions and Federal Reserve policy direction [10]