PPI创两年最大涨幅，美联储降息50基点预期归零，港股科技迎高弹性机遇

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July increased by 0.9% month-on-month, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 0.2%, marking the largest single-month increase since June 2022 [1] - Year-on-year, the PPI rose by 3.3%, well above the anticipated 2.5%, representing the highest level since February of this year [1] - Core PPI also showed strong growth, with month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, both surpassing market expectations [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The unexpected PPI data led to a rapid reassessment of Federal Reserve policy, with the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September dropping to zero [3] - Conversely, the likelihood of no rate cut in September increased to 7.9%, indicating heightened concerns regarding a shift in Federal Reserve policy [3] - Despite this, the market maintains a 90% probability for a 25 basis point rate cut, suggesting continued investor belief in a forthcoming easing cycle, albeit at a more moderate pace [3] Group 3: Hong Kong Stock Market - In light of the adjusted rate cut expectations, the Hong Kong stock market's relative advantages are gaining attention, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, which is more sensitive to changes in the US-China interest rate differential [4] - The Hang Seng Tech Index remains in a historically undervalued range, indicating significant upside potential if global liquidity conditions improve [4] - Continuous inflow of southbound capital supports the Hong Kong market, with net inflows reaching HKD 10.34 billion on August 14, totaling HKD 903.045 billion for the year, significantly surpassing last year's total [4] - The performance of Hong Kong stocks during the interim reporting period will be crucial for future market trends, with a focus on companies exceeding earnings expectations [4] - The technology and pharmaceutical sectors in Hong Kong are particularly noteworthy, as they may present new investment opportunities driven by earnings growth and policy support [4]