美国PPI数据超预期打压降息预期，黄金下跌

Core Viewpoint - The market's expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have been adjusted downward due to inflation data and hawkish comments from Fed officials, leading to a decline in gold ETF prices and trading volumes [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On August 15, the gold ETF (159937) fell by 0.28% with a trading volume of 200 million yuan [1]. - Spot gold prices experienced volatility, trading at approximately $3,340 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.3% [2]. - Following the release of PPI data, the dollar index rose over 0.4%, marking its largest increase in nearly two weeks, which diminished gold's appeal [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. July PPI data surged by 3.3% year-on-year, significantly exceeding market expectations of 2.5%, indicating potential upward pressure on core inflation [3]. - Core PPI also saw a notable increase of 3.7%, up from 2.6% in June and above the anticipated 2.9% [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Upcoming meetings between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin are expected to reduce gold's safe-haven demand due to optimistic signals [3]. - The extension of the U.S.-China tariff ceasefire for 90 days has alleviated concerns over escalating trade tensions, further suppressing inflation expectations and short-term demand for gold as an inflation hedge [3]. Group 4: Investment Insights - The gold market is currently in a phase of rebalancing influenced by political expectations and geopolitical risks, suggesting that investors should closely monitor relevant data and events impacting gold prices [5]. - Gold ETF funds (159937) and related funds offer low-cost, diversified trading options, aligning closely with domestic gold prices and providing a long-term investment value due to their role in hedging against tail risks [5].