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黄金ETF持仓量报告解读（2025-8-15）降息未定 金价何去何从
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-15 06:46

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a decrease in holdings to 961.36 tons as of August 14, 2025, reflecting a drop of 2.86 tons from the previous trading day, amid significant adjustments in spot gold prices [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of August 14, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's total holdings stand at 961.36 tons [5]. - The holdings decreased by 2.86 tons compared to the previous trading day [5]. Group 2: Market Conditions - On August 14, spot gold prices fell significantly, reaching a low of $3,329.73 per ounce and closing at $3,335.33 per ounce, a decline of $20.69 or 0.62% [5]. - The decline in gold prices is attributed to rising inflation indicators, with the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July showing a year-on-year increase from 2.3% to 3.3%, the highest level since February [5]. - The month-on-month increase of 0.9% in PPI is the largest since June 2022, driven by soaring service costs [5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Influence - The rising inflation data has led traders to reduce bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, resulting in a rebound of the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, which in turn suppresses gold prices [5]. - Several Federal Reserve officials, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, have publicly opposed a significant 50 basis point rate cut in September, indicating that such a move could send unnecessary signals [6]. - Analysts suggest that while rate cut expectations are already priced in, gold prices may begin to rise by the end of the year due to concerns over high debt levels [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators show that while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the midpoint, it is not sufficient to confirm a new upward trend for gold prices [5]. - The gold price has closed below the 50-day moving average of $3,350, with the next target being the 100-day moving average at $3,302 [5]. - If gold prices continue to decline, they may challenge the July 31 low of $3,274 [5].