大国债务：经济增长的代价

Group 1 - The macro leverage ratio is a relative indicator of debt levels, calculated as the ratio of non-financial sector debt to total GDP [1] - The increase in macro leverage ratio is driven by the growth rate of debt exceeding the growth rate of nominal GDP [2] - As of the end of 2019, the macro leverage ratios for China, Germany, Japan, and the United States were 239.5%, 202%, 382.9%, and 256.3% respectively, with projections for 2024 showing significant increases for China [3] Group 2 - The trend for Germany, Japan, and the United States shows a pattern of "sharp rise and fall," with their macro leverage ratios peaking in 2020 and returning to levels similar to 2019 by the end of 2024, while China's ratio continues to rise steadily [4] - The macro (non-financial sector) debt total is composed of household, non-financial enterprise, and government debt [6] Group 3 - Household leverage ratios in China, Germany, Japan, and the United States remained relatively stable, with changes within a range of approximately ±5 percentage points from 2019 to 2024 [7] - China's non-financial enterprise leverage ratio exhibited a pattern of "rise-fall-rise," with a notable increase since 2022, contrasting with the trends in Germany, Japan, and the United States [8][10] Group 4 - The government leverage ratio in China has been steadily increasing, projected to rise from 59.6% at the end of 2019 to 88.4% by the end of 2024, while the ratios for Germany, Japan, and the United States show an initial increase followed by a decline [14] - The increase in China's government leverage ratio is not solely linked to international economic crises, indicating a potential weakening of the effectiveness of counter-cyclical policies over time [24] Group 5 - The analysis indicates that the increase in China's macro leverage ratio is associated with a slower growth in nominal GDP, despite higher real GDP growth compared to the United States [38][39] - The nominal GDP growth in China from 2022 to 2024 is projected to lag behind that of the United States, Germany, and Japan [39] Group 6 - The current macro leverage ratio in China is significantly higher than the global trend, indicating a situation of "debt before wealth" [43] - The government debt levels in China have increased significantly, with the nominal value of government debt nearly doubling from 2019 to 2024, while the increases in Germany, Japan, and the United States are comparatively lower [33][34]