Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-15 07:32Core Viewpoint - UBS has downgraded Kerry Properties' earnings forecast for the next two years by 25% to 27% due to updated project completion timelines, lower profit margin expectations, and reduced interest capitalization, while raising the target price from HKD 21.4 to HKD 24 and maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for Kerry Properties has been reduced by 25% to 27% for the next two years [1] - The target price has been increased from HKD 21.4 to HKD 24, with a maintained "Buy" rating [1] - The company is expected to report a profit of less than HKD 1 billion for the first half of the year, with a projected profit margin of 15% for its Hong Kong development properties, similar to last year [1] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The development of private real estate investment trusts (REITs) in China is seen as a potential new funding channel for Hong Kong developers like Kerry Properties [1] - Over 40% of Kerry Properties' asset value is related to mainland investment properties, with an estimated 68% of these properties meeting the requirements for private REITs [1] - The asset divestiture is expected to drive an increase in the company's stock price, based on a current price-to-earnings ratio of 0.29 and a conservative valuation of 4.8% to 7% for mainland investment properties [1] Group 3: Rental Income Expectations - The company anticipates a mid-single-digit decline in rental income from both Hong Kong and mainland properties [1]