三大因素驱动！摩根大通预测在2026-27年出现“AH平价”

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the AH premium will narrow and potentially reach parity by 2026-2027, as the premium has already decreased significantly since early 2024 [1] Group 1: Factors Driving the Narrowing of AH Premium - The upward revision of earnings expectations, particularly in the financial and cyclical sectors, is a key driver for the narrowing AH premium. As A-share earnings expectations rise, investors are likely to shift towards H-shares due to their greater discounts [3] - Market structure differences contribute to the AH premium dynamics. The A-share market has a significantly higher retail investor presence compared to the H-share market, which is dominated by institutional investors. This results in greater liquidity and depth in the A-share market [4] - Continuous inflow of southbound funds is enhancing the attractiveness of H-shares. Currently, southbound funds account for approximately 28% of Hong Kong market transactions, the highest level in a decade, which is expected to further boost H-share valuations [5] Group 2: Future Expectations - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates three times between September and December 2025, which could further enhance H-share valuations relative to A-shares [6] - The combination of upward earnings revisions, sustained inflow of southbound funds, and ongoing favorable policies is expected to continue narrowing the AH premium, potentially achieving parity by 2026-2027 [6]