提前囤稀土，捡15年“垃圾”，日本的稀土大计摆脱中国了吗？

Core Viewpoint - Japan has been heavily reliant on China's rare earth resources, and despite efforts over the past decade to reduce this dependency, it remains largely unachieved due to various challenges in technology and supply chain management [2][5][16]. Group 1: Japan's Rare Earth Strategy - Japan's government initiated the "Rare Metal Strategy" in 2009, focusing on improving recycling rates, seeking new overseas supply sources, increasing strategic reserves, and developing alternative resources [5][16]. - The recycling of rare earth elements has proven to be a significant technical challenge, with low recovery rates and high costs associated with extracting rare earths from electronic waste [5][16]. - Japan has attempted to source rare earth materials from countries like Mongolia and Brazil, but these countries lack the refining capabilities, necessitating reliance on Chinese processing [5][7]. Group 2: Strategic Reserves and Deep-Sea Mining - Increasing strategic reserves of rare earths was proposed to mitigate supply risks during emergencies; however, without a complete industrial chain, this strategy is ineffective [7][16]. - Japan's government launched the "Mineral Resource Security Strategy" in 2012 to develop deep-sea rare earth resources, particularly around Minami-Torishima, with estimated reserves of 1.6 million tons [11][16]. - The deep-sea mining initiative faces significant technical and cost barriers, with extraction costs estimated at 12 billion yen (approximately 83 million USD) per ton of rare earths, making it a challenging endeavor [11][16]. Group 3: Alternative Technologies - Some Japanese companies have explored developing rare earth-free technologies, particularly in magnet production, but these alternatives face limitations in heat resistance and magnetic strength compared to traditional rare earth magnets [15][16]. - Despite advancements in technology, the maturity and market acceptance of these alternatives remain significant hurdles for widespread adoption [15][16]. Group 4: Conclusion on Dependency - Overall, Japan's extensive efforts to address rare earth supply issues have not yielded the expected results, with ongoing technological bottlenecks and an incomplete supply chain [16]. - The reality of dependency on Chinese rare earths persists, and without breakthroughs in technology or significant changes in external conditions, Japan's rare earth strategy is unlikely to fundamentally alter its current situation [16].