民生证券：首次覆盖中国国贸给予买入评级

Core Viewpoint - The report on China International Trade Center (600007) highlights its strong asset base in Beijing's CBD, stable shareholder structure, and consistent revenue generation across its core business segments, leading to a "buy" rating for the stock [1][2]. Group 1: Asset and Shareholder Structure - China International Trade Center is located between Beijing's East Second and Third Ring Roads, making it a landmark and one of the largest comprehensive business service facilities globally, comprising office buildings, shopping malls, hotels, and apartments [2]. - The controlling shareholder, China International Trade Center Co., Ltd., holds an 80.65% stake as of Q1 2025, with its shareholders being China Shimao Investment Co., Ltd. and Kerry Properties Limited, each holding 50% [2]. Group 2: Revenue Stability and Market Position - The company operates four Grade A office buildings with a rental rate of 627 RMB/㎡/month as of Q1 2025, showing a gradual increase from 2021 to 2024, while the overall rental market in Beijing is expected to decline by 23.7% in 2024 compared to 2023 [3]. - The occupancy rate of the company's office buildings stands at 92.7%, outperforming Beijing's overall rate of 87.4% as of December 2024 [3]. - The Guomao Mall, opened in 1990, recorded a footfall of 25.9 million in 2024, ranking first in Beijing and fifth nationally, with sales of 19.1 billion RMB [3]. - The company's apartment segment achieved a revenue of 187 million RMB in 2024, marking a 2.02% increase year-on-year [3]. - Hotel operations generated 526 million RMB in revenue, reflecting a 7.59% decline due to macroeconomic factors and geopolitical uncertainties [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the year ending 2024, the company reported revenues of 3.912 billion RMB, a slight decrease of 1.05%, and a net profit of 1.262 billion RMB, an increase of 0.25% [4]. - The company's interest-bearing debt decreased by 31.11% to 1.085 billion RMB compared to 1.575 billion RMB in 2023, with all debt being bank loans [4]. - The dividend payout ratio reached 87.77% with a dividend yield of 6.54%, indicating a trend of increasing shareholder returns [4]. Group 4: Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 3.936 billion RMB, 4.007 billion RMB, and 4.090 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be 1.280 billion RMB, 1.331 billion RMB, and 1.388 billion RMB [4]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 16, 15, and 15 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [4]. Group 5: Analyst Ratings - In the last 90 days, four institutions have rated the stock, with three giving a "buy" rating and one an "accumulate" rating, while the average target price among institutions is 26.56 RMB [6].