张尧浠:9月大幅降息预期突转缩减 金价短期难逃调整区间

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices faced a rebound but ultimately fell due to reduced risk appetite following comments from Putin about potential new arms agreements with the U.S. and a significant increase in the U.S. July PPI, which rose by 0.9%, the largest increase in three years, suggesting a potential rise in inflation in the coming months and diminishing expectations for a substantial rate cut in September [1][5]. Group 1 - Gold prices opened at $3356.68 per ounce, reached a daily high of $3374.58, and then declined to a low of $3329.84, closing at $3335.26, marking a daily drop of $21.42 or 0.64% [3]. - The U.S. dollar index rebounded, recovering losses from earlier in the week, which may limit gold's upward momentum unless it breaks through the 200-day and 200-week moving averages [3][5]. - Upcoming U.S. economic data, including retail sales and industrial production, is expected to be favorable for gold prices, but a return to bullish sentiment will depend on gold reclaiming levels above the mid-band [5][6]. Group 2 - Despite previous expectations for a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve, recent comments from Fed officials have cast doubt on the likelihood of a large cut in September, with Daly and Musalem suggesting that such a move may not align with current economic conditions [5][6]. - The U.S. Treasury's total debt has surpassed $37 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and its impact on the global economy, which may pressure the Fed to act sooner on rate cuts [5]. - Gold prices are expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern until the September rate meeting, with potential risks of a decline towards the 30-week moving average or around $3200, although any significant pullback could present a buying opportunity [6][8].