芯片继续大涨！为何表现这么强，后市走势如何？

Market Overview - The CSI Chip Industry Index (H30007.CSI) opened higher today, rising by 1.43% as of 14:45, with a peak increase of nearly 4% during the previous day. The chip industry has seen five consecutive days of gains, driven primarily by domestic substitution. AI chips have shown the largest increase, while leading companies in ASIC chips have also performed well. Additionally, companies in key domestic substitution areas such as photolithography machines and photoresists have experienced significant gains [2]. Chip Industry Performance - The chip sector is showing signs of strength, benefiting from three main factors: 1. The semiconductor market remains highly prosperous, with global semiconductor sales reaching a historical high of $59.91 billion in June, a year-on-year increase of 19.6% and a month-on-month increase of 1.5%. China's semiconductor sales also hit a record high of $17.24 billion, up 13.1% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month. In July, integrated circuit exports reached $17.888 billion, marking a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 29.16% and a volume of 31.84 billion units, up 16.63% year-on-year [3]. 2. The government work report for 2025 emphasizes "promoting high-level technological self-reliance," accelerating high-end domestic substitution in areas such as advanced processes, advanced storage, and advanced packaging. AI chips and automotive-grade chips are progressing rapidly, evolving from simple substitution to innovative replacement. The current overall domestic chip substitution rate is approximately 20%, indicating significant room for growth towards the 70% target. The recent easing of trade tensions is not expected to impact the long-term strategic layout of self-reliance in the chip sector [4][5]. Mergers and Acquisitions - There are numerous potential benefits from ongoing mergers and acquisitions, supported by policies such as "Kebatian" and "Merger Six," which facilitate the integration of upstream and downstream industries. This enhances the collaborative effect within the industry and creates opportunities for external growth in the chip sector. For instance, North Huachuang's acquisition of Xinyuanwei integrates coating and developing equipment technology, improving the semiconductor equipment platform layout [10]. Future Outlook - The semiconductor sector, as a core area of hard technology, is expected to experience an upward trend driven by self-reliance policies and industry catalysts. The upcoming release of Q4 Mate 80, which may include iterative improvements in SoC chips, is anticipated to benefit the advanced process supply chain. Additionally, progress in 3D DRAM product development is expected to be disclosed, positively impacting the advanced storage supply chain [10].