Xuan Gu Bao·2025-08-15 10:00Core Viewpoint - July economic data shows signs of slowdown, with only exports accelerating while industrial, service, consumption, investment, and real estate sales all underperformed compared to previous values, indicating a divergence in internal and external demand [1][6]. Economic Data Summary - Actual GDP index estimated to be approximately 5.02% year-on-year based on industrial value added and service production index, and about 4.79% when estimated using industrial value added and retail sales [1][6]. - Exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 5.9% [6]. - Industrial value added grew by 5.7%, down from 6.8% previously, with a month-on-month seasonal adjustment of 0.38% [1][7]. - Service production index rose by 5.8%, lower than the previous 6.0% [6]. - Retail sales (社零) increased by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% previously, with a month-on-month seasonal adjustment of -0.14% [2][10]. - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.6%, down from 2.8%, with a single-month year-on-year decline of -5.2% [3][13]. - Real estate sales decreased by 8.0% year-on-year, compared to a previous decline of 5.4% [4][15]. Sector-Specific Insights - In the industrial sector, coal production growth saw a significant decline, while new industry products like smartphones and robots also experienced a slowdown [7][8]. - Retail sectors such as dining and tobacco continue to show low growth, with automotive sales turning negative for the first time in five months [2][10]. - Fixed asset investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate all showed notable declines, with real estate investment down by 17.2% year-on-year [3][15]. - Real estate data indicates a continued slowdown in sales, new construction, and investment, with significant declines in various metrics [4][15][16]. Policy and Market Outlook - The overall economic indicators suggest the emergence of a "slowdown zone," which aligns with market expectations [5][18]. - Recent macroeconomic policies are focused on supporting service consumption, particularly through interest subsidies for personal and business loans [5][18]. - The continuation of "two重" policies and real estate policies is deemed crucial for stabilizing the economy [5][18].