Hu Xiu·2025-08-15 11:31Core Viewpoint - Amazon is intensifying its focus on same-day delivery for groceries in the U.S., directly competing with Walmart in the grocery retail market [1][8]. Expansion Plans - As of August 13, Amazon announced that customers can purchase fresh groceries with same-day delivery, expanding its service from over 1,000 cities to over 2,300 cities by the end of the year [2][3]. - The grocery expansion plan, combined with low prices and fast delivery, is expected to help Amazon maintain its leading position in the U.S. e-commerce market despite increased competition from Walmart [3][10]. Market Potential - The grocery retail market in the U.S. is significant, accounting for approximately 43% of adjusted retail sales, but online penetration is only about 15%, indicating substantial growth potential for e-commerce platforms [5][4]. Revenue Projections - Amazon's grocery business is projected to exceed $100 billion in revenue in the U.S. by 2024, representing over 20% of its total gross merchandise volume (GMV) [6]. - Since acquiring Whole Foods in 2017, Amazon's grocery sales have increased by over 40%, with redesigned Amazon Fresh stores seeing a 20% increase in average monthly customer spending [6]. Competitive Strategy - Amazon's strategy aims to increase its share of consumer spending and purchase frequency, potentially leading to a price increase for Prime memberships by 2026 [7]. - Walmart has gained 80 basis points in U.S. e-commerce market share in 2024, while Amazon has gained 65 basis points, highlighting the competitive landscape [9][11]. Operational Efficiency - Amazon's operational efficiency is improving, with a 6% year-over-year increase in transportation costs, significantly lower than the 12% growth in order volume, indicating the company's ability to manage increased order volume without significantly impacting profit margins [12]. Market Share Forecast - By the end of this year, Amazon's market share in the U.S. e-commerce sector is expected to grow by 140 basis points to approximately 47%, far exceeding Walmart's anticipated growth of 100 basis points to around 8% [11]. Impact on Competitors - The announcement of Amazon's grocery business expansion has put pressure on other grocery delivery platforms like Instacart, which saw its stock price drop by over 10% [14]. - Despite the pressure, Instacart has unique competitive advantages, including partnerships with over 1,800 retail brands and a strong market share in high-ticket orders [15][16].