2025年化债进行时系列专题报告：化债两年，城投付息下降，缩量格局延续（附下载）

Core Viewpoint - The restructuring of urban investment (城投) debt is showing signs of improvement, with a shift towards lower-cost financing, although the overall debt scale remains high and the interest payment pressure is still significant in the short term [1][9]. Debt Structure Changes - As of March 2025, the total urban investment platform's interest-bearing debt reached 61.72 trillion yuan, a 9.4% increase from June 2023, with bank loans, bonds, and non-standard financing contributing 40.67 trillion, 15.41 trillion, and 5.63 trillion yuan respectively [2]. - The proportion of bank loans in the debt structure increased from 63.76% in June 2023 to 65.9% by March 2025, indicating a shift towards more stable financing sources [2][5]. - By the end of 2025, it is expected that the proportions of bank loans, bonds, and non-standard financing will be 68.11%, 23.71%, and 8.17% respectively [2]. Interest Payment Pressure - The overall interest payment pressure is expected to ease over time, despite the current high levels due to the lagging effect of past debt [1][9]. - The financing costs for banks, bonds, and non-standard financing have significantly decreased, with bank loan rates dropping to 3.26% and bond issuance rates to 2.61% by March 2025 [7]. - Interest expenses have decreased by over 190 billion yuan, with bank loan interest payments down by 284.38 million yuan and bond interest payments reduced by 1.355 billion yuan [8][9]. Provincial Variations in Debt Payments - All provinces except Beijing and Shanghai have seen a decrease in urban investment debt interest payments, with notable reductions in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, where interest payments decreased by 357.19 million yuan and 171.27 million yuan respectively [10]. - Some provinces, such as Henan, have not managed to control debt increments effectively, leading to smaller reductions in interest payments [10]. Market Outlook - The urban investment bond market is expected to see more certainty in the mid to short-term, with a lack of mainline logic in the market leading to fluctuations influenced by risk preferences [11]. - The supply-demand dynamics for urban investment bonds continue to be tight, with a net outflow of 21.784 billion yuan in July, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [11].