7月经济数据出现短期波动，扩内需政策仍将接续发力

Economic Overview - July economic data shows marginal weakening, with declines in social retail sales, investment, industrial output, and service production indices compared to June [1][6] - The overall economic performance in the first half of the year was better than expected, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [6] Export and Import Data - In July, total goods import and export amounted to 3.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with exports at 2.31 trillion yuan, growing 8.0% [2][3] - Despite a decrease in exports to the US due to tariff adjustments, China's overall export performance remains resilient, particularly in non-US markets [2][3] Consumer Spending - Social retail sales in July reached 3.88 trillion yuan, growing only 3.7%, marking the lowest monthly growth this year [2][3] - The slowdown in retail growth is attributed to the temporary suspension of the "trade-in" policy in some regions [3][8] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment from January to July totaled 28.82 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, reflecting a decline from the previous months [3][4] - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, while infrastructure investment increased by 3.2%, both showing a decrease compared to earlier months [3][4] Policy Implications - The government is expected to enhance macroeconomic policies, including fiscal stimulus and interest rate cuts, to support consumption and stabilize the real estate market [5][6][8] - The introduction of the third batch of 690 billion yuan in "national subsidies" is anticipated to boost retail sales in August [3][8] Sectoral Performance - New industries are experiencing rapid investment growth, with aerospace and computer equipment manufacturing seeing increases of 33.9% and 16% respectively from January to July [4] - The renewable energy sector also shows strong investment growth, with solar, wind, nuclear, and hydropower investments rising by 21.9% [4]