“十五五”时期我国旅游业发展趋势展望

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is a critical stage for China's tourism industry, which is increasingly recognized as a strategic pillar industry and a significant contributor to the economy and social development [1][8]. Group 1: International Environment and Challenges - The global economic recovery remains weak, with growth rates expected to stay between 2.6% and 3.4%, and the long-term outlook is pessimistic, with the World Bank predicting a slowdown post-2025 [3][4]. - The global economic landscape is shifting towards emerging markets, particularly in Asia, with a notable transfer of economic focus from developed to developing countries [4][5]. - Global governance faces significant challenges, with rising populism and protectionism, leading to increased geopolitical tensions and instability [5]. - The trend of global population aging is intensifying, with projections indicating that by 2030, the number of people aged 80 and above will reach 265 million, impacting labor supply and economic growth [5]. Group 2: Domestic Development Context - China is at a pivotal stage in achieving its modernization goals by 2035, requiring an average annual economic growth rate of 3.87% from 2020 to 2035 [9]. - The country is on the verge of entering the "high-income group," with per capita GNI expected to exceed the threshold in the near future [9]. - The focus is shifting towards high-quality development, with an emphasis on transforming growth drivers and optimizing economic structures [10]. Group 3: Tourism Industry Development - The tourism industry is positioned as a new strategic pillar and a happiness industry, with a focus on enhancing the quality of life and economic contributions [16]. - The tourism sector's contribution to GDP was 4.4% in 2023, indicating a solid foundation for future growth [13]. - The construction of a tourism powerhouse is now a key component of China's modernization strategy, with a call for integrated development with cultural, educational, and technological sectors [12][33]. Group 4: Future Trends in Tourism - The tourism industry is expected to become more comprehensive, focusing on personalized and quality experiences to enhance residents' happiness [16]. - The relationship between supply and demand will evolve, with a shift towards high-quality, diversified tourism products and services [19]. - The integration of culture and tourism will deepen, with a focus on cultural heritage and innovative tourism experiences [23]. Group 5: Key Tasks for Tourism Development - Accelerating the construction of a tourism powerhouse is essential, with a focus on aligning tourism development with broader economic and social goals [33]. - Emphasis on expanding domestic tourism while enhancing the quality of inbound tourism and managing outbound tourism effectively [34]. - Promoting tourism consumption expansion and upgrading through supportive policies and improved consumer experiences [35]. - Building a modern tourism industry system that is innovative, advanced, and integrated with other sectors [36][37].