真闹心：房价跌掉一半，房贷却未减少，千万元房产也卖不出？

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing significant price declines, with many homeowners facing the challenge of high mortgage payments despite the drop in property values [3][5][11] Market Conditions - In the first half of 2025, 53 out of 70 major cities reported new home prices lower than the previous year, with 16 cities experiencing price drops of over 30% [3] - The transaction volume for high-end properties (over 10 million) has decreased by more than 60% compared to the previous year, while the number of sellers has increased by nearly 50% [3][5] - The average time to sell properties in first and second-tier cities has increased significantly, with high-end properties taking an average of 412 days to sell, compared to 89 days in 2021 [7] Mortgage and Financial Implications - Despite falling property prices, mortgage payments remain unchanged, leading to increased financial pressure on homeowners [8] - As of May 2025, the total mortgage debt in China reached 38.7 trillion yuan, with a non-performing loan rate of 2.1%, the highest in a decade [5] - The real estate sector accounts for approximately 25% of GDP, and related industries such as home appliances and building materials have seen significant sales declines, with home appliance sales down 18.7% and building materials down 22.3% in the second quarter of 2025 [8] Government and Policy Responses - In response to the market downturn, 27 cities have introduced home purchase subsidy policies, offering up to 5% of the purchase price [9] - Some developers are exploring "rent-to-own" schemes, allowing potential buyers to rent before purchasing, with rental payments contributing to the purchase price [9] - Banks are beginning to trial "mortgage replacement" programs, allowing for reassessment of loan amounts in light of falling property values, although this is still in the early stages [9] Long-term Market Outlook - The Chinese real estate market is shifting from a focus on new construction to optimizing existing properties, with an emphasis on housing for living rather than investment [11] - Buyers are encouraged to adjust their expectations regarding property appreciation and focus on the residential function of homes [11]