美国7月“恐怖数据”符合预期，交易员仍押注9月降息

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. retail sales showed a general increase in July, driven by auto sales and major online promotions, indicating a rise in consumer spending in recent months, although potential headwinds from a slowing job market and rising goods prices may dampen growth in Q3 [1][3]. Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - July retail sales increased by 0.5% month-over-month, matching expectations, with the previous value revised from 0.6% to 0.9%. Excluding auto sales, retail sales grew by 0.3% [1][3]. - Among 13 categories, 9 reported sales growth, with auto sales experiencing the largest increase since March [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Sales - The increase in retail sales may be partly attributed to rising prices due to tariffs rather than an increase in volume. Analysts noted a rush to purchase electric vehicles before the federal tax credit expires on September 30 [3]. - Major retailers like Amazon and Walmart held promotional events to attract consumers feeling the pinch of inflation, particularly for back-to-school essentials [3]. Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Consumer spending has shown remarkable resilience over the past five years, but recent signs indicate that consumers are tightening their belts due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and immigration policies [4]. - Despite strong retail sales in June, the performance in May and April was lackluster, leading to concerns about a slowdown in spending [4].