Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-08-15 13:56Core Insights - The strong performance of Lumentum (LITE) and Coherent (COHR) in Q2 indicates a significant supply-demand imbalance in the optical communication industry driven by the global AI infrastructure boom [1] - Nomura Securities suggests that the current AI-driven optical communication industry cycle has greater sustainability and growth potential than previously expected, creating unprecedented profit opportunities across the supply chain [1] Company Performance - Lumentum reported Q4 FY25 revenue of $480.7 million, a year-over-year increase of 55.9%, with GAAP net profit turning from a loss of $252.5 million in the same period last year to a profit of $213.3 million [2] - Lumentum's forward guidance for Q1 FY26 estimates revenue between $510 million and $540 million, representing a quarter-over-quarter growth of 6%-12% and a year-over-year growth of 51%-60% [2] - Coherent's Q4 FY25 revenue grew by 16.4% year-over-year, with non-GAAP earnings increasing by 73.6% to $192 million, driven by strong performance in the data center segment [2] Market Dynamics - The EML chip supply bottleneck is creating significant opportunities for the optical communication industry, with Lumentum transitioning from 3-inch wafers to 4-inch wafers to alleviate chip shortages [3] - The data center and communication segments contributed 62% of total revenue, which grew by 39% year-over-year to $942 million [4] - The company began shipping 1.6T transceivers in Q2 and expects meaningful revenue contributions from these products in FY26 [4]