特朗普将把全球“自由贸易”变为“准入贸易”

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's "reciprocal tariff" policy signifies a fundamental restructuring of global power dynamics, capital flow logic, and trade philosophy, transitioning the U.S. from a proponent of free trade to a gatekeeper of market access through high tariffs [2][17]. Trade Policy Shift - The U.S. trade policy has shifted from "free trade" to "access trade," where market entry requires high fees, redefining trade relationships as a "pay-to-enter" mechanism [2][4]. - The "America First" and "fair trade" paradox highlights the contradiction in Trump's protectionist approach aimed at achieving "fair trade" while claiming to rectify perceived unfair treatment in globalization [3][9]. Unilateralism vs. Multilateralism - Trump's skepticism towards multilateral trade systems like the WTO has driven the shift to "access trade," advocating for bilateral negotiations to maximize unilateral benefits [3][6]. - The strategy employs economic pressure to force compliance from trade partners, effectively turning trade negotiations into a form of economic coercion [6][9]. Tariff Mechanism - The "reciprocal tariff" policy has evolved from punitive tariffs targeting specific economies to a universal market access mechanism, with an average tariff rate rising to 15.2%, the highest since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1934 [4][5]. - Tariffs are now standardized and categorized based on trade deficits and geopolitical stances, with countries facing differentiated rates [5][6]. Geopolitical Implications - Tariffs are increasingly used as tools for geopolitical leverage, with the U.S. applying pressure on countries like India and Canada to align with its strategic interests [6][9]. - The policy has prompted multinational corporations to reassess their global supply chains, leading to a "re-anchoring" of production closer to the U.S. or in low-tariff regions [7][9]. Dollar Dominance and Economic Coercion - The "access trade" strategy leverages the U.S. market and dollar dominance, transforming trade negotiations into a form of economic extortion, where countries must accumulate dollar reserves to pay tariffs [8][9]. - This approach effectively upgrades the concept of "seigniorage" into a "storage tax," embedding the U.S. fee-collecting power into global capital flows [8][9]. Global Trade Dynamics - The "reciprocal tariff" policy is reshaping global trade dynamics, with countries either accelerating their integration into the U.S. market or diversifying away from it, leading to a potential "de-Americanization" of trade [13][14]. - The policy has resulted in a significant decline in U.S. exports to China, while trade with other regions like ASEAN and the EU has seen growth, indicating a shift towards a more diversified trade network [13][14]. Long-term Economic Consequences - The long-term economic costs of the "reciprocal tariff" policy include slowed global growth and increased inflationary pressures, with the IMF predicting a global growth rate of 3% for 2025, down from earlier forecasts [11][12]. - The policy's impact on consumer prices is significant, with average effective tariff rates reaching 18.3%, leading to increased costs for American households [12][13]. Domestic Political Landscape - The "reciprocal tariff" policy creates a conflict between short-term political gains and long-term economic risks, as it may win support from manufacturing voters while imposing costs on consumers and small businesses [16][17]. - The protectionist measures may ultimately lead to economic imbalances, as the burden of increased costs is disproportionately felt by lower-income households [16][17].