美国7月零售销售环比增0.5% 实际零售销售连续第十个月实现增长

Core Insights - US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% month-on-month, marking the second consecutive month of significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [1][4] - The actual retail sales adjusted for inflation showed a year-on-year growth of 1.2%, indicating resilience in consumer spending for the tenth consecutive month [1][4] Retail Sales Performance - July retail sales data indicates a broad improvement in consumer activity, with 9 out of 13 categories reporting growth, led by automotive sales which saw the largest increase since March [4] - Online retailers and general merchandise stores also experienced growth, likely benefiting from promotional events such as Amazon's extended Prime Day and Walmart's discount activities [4] - Excluding automobiles, July retail sales rose by 0.3%, aligning with market expectations, while the previous month's figure was revised up to 0.9% [1][2][4] Consumer Confidence and Economic Outlook - Despite concerns over consumer confidence reflected in softer survey data, consumers continue to spend, supported by a recovering labor market and clearer trade policies [9] - The strong retail sales performance suggests a better start for consumer spending in the second half of the year, crucial for sustaining US economic activity [9] - Challenges ahead for consumers include rising debt levels, the resumption of student loan repayments, and reduced savings, which may impact future spending [9] Market Reactions - Following the release of retail data, US Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year Treasury yield turning upward to 3.740% [10]