美联储古尔斯比：通胀报告释放了不安信号，但不应对单月数据反应过度

Group 1 - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed hesitation regarding interest rate cuts due to mixed inflation data and ongoing uncertainty from tariffs, indicating a need for at least one more inflation report to assess persistent price pressures [1] - Goolsbee highlighted concerns over high service inflation from the recent CPI and PPI reports, suggesting that rising service prices are unlikely to be temporary, while cautioning against overreacting to single-month data [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates this year while monitoring the impact of tariffs and other policies on inflation and employment, with a weaker-than-expected jobs report increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in September, as investors see over a 90% chance of a cut next month [1] Group 2 - Goolsbee emphasized the need to distinguish between temporary and persistent price increases, stating that clarity would come with similar inflation reports in the future [2] - Recent data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed a 0.5% increase in retail sales in July, with June's data revised to a 0.9% increase, while sales excluding automobiles rose by 0.3% [2] - The University of Michigan's consumer survey indicated a decline in consumer confidence by about 5% in August, primarily due to rising inflation concerns, with short-term inflation expectations unexpectedly rising from 4.5% to 4.9% [2][3] Group 3 - The consumer survey also reported a 14% drop in durable goods purchases, the lowest level in a year, reflecting increased concerns over purchasing power, while personal financial expectations showed slight improvement [3] - Despite a decrease in immediate concerns regarding tariffs, consumers still anticipate worsening inflation and unemployment rates in the future [3]