Why I'm Expecting Stocks To Soar Over the Next 4 Months

Market Overview - The S&P and Nasdaq are near all-time highs, with the Dow also close to its peak, while the small-cap Russell 2000 is poised for an upside breakout [1] - Major indexes have surged by double digits since early April, with the Dow up 22.7%, S&P up 33.8%, Nasdaq up 46.9%, and Russell 2000 up 32.7% [2] - Despite significant gains, most major indexes are only up single digits for the year, indicating potential for further growth [2] Historical Context - The S&P 500 experienced a 23.3% increase last year, marking the second consecutive year of over 20% gains, a rare occurrence [4] - The last time the S&P had two consecutive years of 20%+ gains was in 1995-1996, which preceded a five-year rally with a total increase of 220% [8] Current Economic Indicators - Inflation has been moderate, with core inflation at 3.1% year-over-year, down from 3.3% [14] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is at 3.7% year-over-year, showing slight improvement [15] - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement two rate cuts this year, with a high likelihood of a September cut at 92.6% [16][15] Earnings Outlook - S&P earnings are projected to grow, with Q1'25 earnings up 12.2%, Q2 at 12.0%, Q3 at 4.8%, Q4 at 6.3%, and Q1'26 at 8.5% [18] - Despite previous market fears, aggregate earnings estimates remain strong, reinforcing the notion that earnings drive stock prices [19] Small-Cap Market Dynamics - The small-cap sector is experiencing a rally, supported by anticipated interest rate cuts and favorable tax provisions from a recently passed budget bill [20][22] - Small-caps typically have higher debt levels and will benefit significantly from lower interest rates, enhancing their growth potential [21] Technology Sector Insights - The current market is witnessing a tech boom, particularly driven by advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI), which is expected to be transformative across various industries [10][11] - The AI boom is supported by real earnings and growth potential, contributing to a positive market outlook [11] Investment Strategies - Proven stock-picking strategies, such as focusing on Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy stocks, have historically outperformed the market [24] - Stocks making new highs tend to continue rising, with an average annual return of 37.6% compared to the S&P's 7.7% over the past 25 years [30] - Small-cap growth stocks have also shown significant outperformance, with an average annual return of 44.3% [31]