美联储深夜改口，特朗普迎来噩耗，降息 300 点，美元黄昏要提前？

Group 1 - The total amount of U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, resulting in a debt burden of $107,000 per American, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion [1][9] - President Trump is advocating for a significant interest rate cut of 300 basis points to alleviate the debt burden, which he believes could save nearly $1 trillion annually [9][25] - Treasury Secretary Bessent has indicated a high likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, contradicting previous Federal Reserve statements [3][5] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs economists suggest that a 50 basis point rate cut should be the market's baseline expectation, rather than the previously anticipated 25 basis points [7] - The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates a 93.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 6.7% probability of a 50 basis point cut in September [7] - There is a growing divide within the Federal Reserve, with some members openly opposing Chairman Powell's stance on interest rates, a rare occurrence in the Fed's history [13][25] Group 3 - The global trend of de-dollarization is accelerating, with countries significantly reducing their U.S. Treasury holdings and increasing gold reserves [17] - Japan is preparing to raise interest rates, marking a significant shift in monetary policy that contrasts with the U.S. approach [19] - Market confidence in the dollar is declining, with gold and Bitcoin reaching historical highs, while the dollar index has fallen below 90 [21] Group 4 - Trump's recent nominations for Federal Reserve positions include several loyalists, indicating a push to align the Fed more closely with his administration's monetary policy goals [23] - The ongoing conflict between the White House and the Federal Reserve represents a broader struggle between political power and market forces [25] - The acceleration of de-dollarization presents an opportunity for the internationalization of the Chinese yuan, although caution is advised regarding potential U.S. attempts to shift economic burdens [27]