房价止跌还要多久？8月更猛楼市刺激继续添把火

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, but short-term fluctuations are expected, with ongoing pressures on prices and the need for supportive policies to ensure recovery [3][5][9]. Group 1: Market Trends - In July, housing prices in 70 major cities generally decreased month-on-month, with first-tier cities seeing a 0.2% decline in new home prices and a 1.0% drop in second-hand home prices [3]. - Only 6 out of 70 cities experienced a month-on-month increase in housing prices, indicating a significant reduction from 14 cities in June 2025 [3]. - The traditional off-peak season for real estate in July and August is contributing to the ongoing market adjustments, with July data showing a decline compared to June [3][5]. Group 2: Policy Implications - Previous real estate policies are beginning to show effects, but there is a need for continued implementation of measures such as lowering down payment ratios and mortgage rates to stimulate demand [5][7]. - The market's recovery is contingent on restoring buyer confidence, which is currently hindered by a "buy high, sell low" mentality among potential purchasers [5][7]. - Local governments are introducing incentives for multi-child families and talent to enhance home-buying enthusiasm [7]. Group 3: Economic Context - The real estate sector accounts for approximately 6.3% of GDP, and when combined with related industries, this figure could reach around 15%, highlighting the sector's importance to overall economic growth [5]. - The government remains committed to stabilizing the real estate market, with expectations for more robust policies to be introduced in August and September [9]. - Economic forecasts suggest that while challenges remain, the underlying conditions for long-term growth are still favorable, which could eventually bolster confidence in the housing market [7][9].