政策端转向修复楼市内生动力

Core Insights - The new housing price index in 70 major cities has shown a consistent month-on-month decline of -0.3% for two consecutive months as of July 2025, with first-tier cities experiencing a slight improvement in the decline rate [1] - The second-hand housing price index in July decreased by 0.6%, but the decline rate has narrowed by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a high level of adjustment [1][2] - Year-on-year, both new and second-hand housing price indices have shown a continuous narrowing of decline, with new housing prices down -3.4% and second-hand prices down -5.9% in July [2] New Housing Market - The new housing price index in first-tier cities saw a year-on-year decline of -1.1%, the lowest since March 2024, while second-tier cities continue to show a narrowing decline [2] - From January to July 2025, the national new housing sales area decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, with sales amount down by 6.5%, indicating a significant price reduction strategy by developers [3] - The average price of new housing has dropped by 2.4% year-on-year, reflecting a larger decline compared to the first half of the year [3] Second-Hand Housing Market - The total number of second-hand housing listings in 100 cities reached 2.5856 million units in July, a year-on-year increase of 11.58%, with first-tier cities growing by 10.55% [4] - Despite the increase in listings, sales volume has decreased, particularly in first-tier cities, leading to a larger decline in prices [4] - The average listing price in 100 cities fell by 8.5% year-on-year, indicating a downward trend in the market [4] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The market is expected to stabilize after a prolonged adjustment period, with a gradual recovery trend anticipated [4][5] - Factors such as urbanization, demand for new housing, and policy support for education and employment are expected to drive future housing transactions [5][6] - Housing supply-side reforms are accelerating, focusing on affordable housing and urban renewal, which are crucial for stabilizing prices [5][6]