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政策端转向修复楼市内生动力丨李宇嘉专栏
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-08-15 22:35

Core Insights - The new housing price index in 70 major cities has shown a consistent month-on-month decline of -0.3% for two consecutive months as of July 2025, with first-tier cities experiencing a slight improvement in the decline rate [1] - The second-hand housing price index in July decreased by 0.6%, but the decline rate has narrowed by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a high level of adjustment [1][2] - Year-on-year, both new and second-hand housing price indices have shown a continuous narrowing of decline, with new housing prices down -3.4% and second-hand housing prices down -5.9% in July [2] New Housing Market - The new housing sales area in major cities has seen a year-on-year average decline of 28.2%, with a total sales area drop of 4.0% and a sales amount drop of 6.5% from January to July 2025 [3] - The average price of new housing has decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, indicating significant price reductions by developers to stimulate sales [3] Second-Hand Housing Market - The total number of second-hand housing listings reached 2.5856 million in July, a year-on-year increase of 11.58%, while the average listing price dropped by 8.5% [4] - The decline in second-hand housing prices is attributed to the impact of high-quality new housing transactions in first-tier cities [4] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The market is expected to stabilize after a prolonged adjustment period, with a trend towards bottoming out and recovery [5][6] - Policy shifts aimed at supporting housing demand, such as measures for education and employment, are anticipated to enhance consumer confidence and stabilize prices [5] - The focus on urban renewal and the provision of affordable housing is expected to drive new housing demand and contribute to price stabilization [6]