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特朗普要求被拒绝,中国将订单转交他国,美国2200万吨库存销不掉
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-15 22:56

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean industry is facing an unprecedented crisis in 2025, largely stemming from trade tensions initiated during the Trump administration, particularly the tariffs imposed on Chinese imports [2][7]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - As of mid-August 2025, Chinese importers have nearly ceased purchasing soybeans from the U.S., with exports to China reaching a near standstill since May 2025 [4]. - The absence of orders from China has set a record for the latest procurement in nearly 20 years, contrasting sharply with previous years when orders typically began in early spring [4]. - The U.S. soybean price competitiveness has been severely undermined by tariffs, with U.S. soybeans priced at $392 per ton compared to Brazilian soybeans at $439 per ton, leading to a significant drop in demand from China [9][10]. Group 2: Economic Impact on U.S. Farmers - The financial health of U.S. soybean farmers is deteriorating, with 63% of farmers having a debt ratio exceeding 80%, and 21% of farms nearing bankruptcy [6]. - U.S. soybean inventories have reached a five-year high of 1.008 billion bushels, equivalent to 178 million tons, indicating a severe oversupply situation [6]. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that the actual export volume of U.S. soybeans has plummeted by 20.8% year-on-year, marking the worst start since 2005 [14]. Group 3: China's Supply Chain Strategy - China has diversified its soybean supply sources, with imports from Brazil rising to 74.65 million tons in 2024, accounting for 71% of total imports, while U.S. imports fell by 5.7% [10]. - Infrastructure improvements, such as the construction of dedicated ports and agreements for direct shipping between Brazil and China, have reduced logistics costs by approximately 30% [10]. - China's domestic soybean production has also increased, with production exceeding 20 million tons for the third consecutive year, raising self-sufficiency from below 20% to 22% [10]. Group 4: Political Context - Trump's call for China to quadruple soybean orders is seen as a response to electoral pressures, particularly from agricultural states that are crucial for Republican support [11]. - Despite the political rhetoric, analysts argue that the feasibility of such an increase is unrealistic, as it would require China to source 85% of its soybean imports solely from the U.S. [13]. - The underlying trade imbalance is exacerbated by the U.S. blocking key technology exports while pushing low-value agricultural products, which complicates the trade relationship [13]. Group 5: Market Reactions - Following Trump's statements, soybean futures saw a temporary spike of 2.8%, but this was viewed as a short-term market reaction rather than a sustainable recovery [14]. - The U.S. soybean export association emphasizes the need for a cooperative approach with China based on mutual respect and benefits to address the ongoing crisis [16].