ZFX山海证券：降息押注不减，黄金迎来反弹

Fundamental Analysis - Weak non-farm payrolls and limited CPI increase, combined with pressure from Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, have led to high market expectations for a rate cut in September, putting pressure on the dollar and allowing gold to rebound [1] - Upcoming data on July PPI and initial jobless claims is anticipated; if PPI remains moderate and jobless claims increase, it is expected to provide further upward momentum for gold [1] Technical Analysis - The one-hour chart for gold shows a bullish trend after a period of consolidation, indicating increased buying interest; if there is a pullback that does not break previous support, the upward trend may continue, suggesting a short-term long position [2] - Suggested trading strategy for gold includes a long position at 3358, with a stop loss below 3346 and a target range of 3374-3385 [4] Technical Analysis (Oil) - The one-hour chart for WTI crude oil indicates that it has failed to break resistance and is experiencing a pullback, reflecting strong selling pressure; if the price does not break resistance on the next rebound, the downward trend may continue, suggesting a short position [5] - Suggested trading strategy for oil includes a short position at 62.17, with a stop loss above 63.12 and a target range of 60.74-61.34 [6]