与上半年截然相反 甲醇市场格局有变

Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol market is experiencing significant regional differentiation, characterized by a "strong inland and weak port" scenario, contrasting sharply with the "strong port and weak inland" situation observed in the first half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current methanol price gap between inland and port areas has narrowed, with the inland price rising above 2100 yuan/ton and port prices declining to around 2350 yuan/ton, resulting in a price difference of 230-250 yuan/ton [1]. - The northwest region's deliverable methanol sources are priced above 2700 yuan/ton, while some areas in East and South China have deliverable sources priced 10-20 yuan/ton below the futures market price, indicating contrasting sales pressures [1]. - The increase in methanol demand in the inland market is attributed to maintenance of coal-to-olefins (MTO) facilities, leading to a need for external methanol sourcing, while the port region faces rising inventories due to increased imports [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The first half of the year saw a "strong port and weak inland" market due to low imports from Iran, which caused port inventories to drop significantly, but the situation has reversed as port inventories have surged past 100,000 tons [2]. - The current market is characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with rising coal prices supporting methanol costs, while declining crude oil prices weaken downstream product prices, leading to production cuts by some companies [3]. - The supply-demand imbalance is exacerbated by rising production costs for inland coal chemical enterprises and weak demand from coastal olefin producers, who are struggling with losses and high-priced imports [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The methanol market is expected to maintain its regional differentiation, with stable operating rates and a slight strength in the inland market, while coastal markets may continue to accumulate inventory due to increased imports [4]. - The key factors influencing future futures prices will be actual demand during the peak season and inventory accumulation, with potential buying opportunities following market corrections [4].