领峰环球金银评论：PPI年率突破3.3% 黄金周四暴跌

Fundamental Analysis - International gold prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations, testing the key support level of $3330 per ounce, with current trading at the lower end of this week's price range [1] - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. July retail sales data, hoping it will provide direction for the stagnant gold market [1] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year rate of 3.3%, significantly higher than the expected 2.5% and previous 2.4% [1] - The month-on-month PPI surged to 0.9%, well above the anticipated 0.2%, impacting Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations [1] - Following the PPI release, the probability of a 100 basis point rate cut in September dropped from 100% to 85%, with aggressive expectations for a 50 basis point cut nearly extinguished [1] - Federal Reserve officials have made statements indicating a lack of necessity for significant rate cuts, aiming to maintain policy flexibility [1] Technical Analysis - Gold (XAUUSD) showed a significant downward trend, dropping over $40, indicating strong bearish momentum [5] - The price has broken below key moving averages, with the MA60 expected to continue exerting downward pressure on gold prices [5] - The current trading strategy suggests focusing on short positions, anticipating further declines after a brief rebound [5] Trading Strategy - For gold, a short position is recommended around $3355, with a stop loss at $3365 and a target range of $3343 to $3333 [6] - Silver (XAGUSD) also experienced a notable decline, with limited rebound potential, suggesting a bearish outlook [8] - The trading strategy for silver recommends short positions around $38.20, with a stop loss at $38.40 and target levels of $37.95 and $37.60 [8] News Events - Key economic data to be released includes Canadian wholesale sales for June, U.S. retail sales for July, New York Fed manufacturing index for August, and U.S. import price index for July, all scheduled for 20:30 [9]