新茶饮老板：今年的外卖大战，无人怀念

Core Insights - The tea beverage market is experiencing significant challenges, with a high closure rate of 75% for milk tea shops in 2025, particularly affecting small and medium brands [2][12] - Despite a market size exceeding 200 billion yuan in 2025, the growth rate has sharply declined due to oversaturation and a wave of closures [2][12] - The rise of delivery platforms like JD and Meituan has intensified competition, leading to aggressive subsidy wars that impact profitability for franchise owners [5][10] Industry Overview - In 2024, nearly 127,700 new milk tea shops opened, while over 140,000 closed, resulting in a negative net increase in stores [2] - The average lifespan of a milk tea shop is only one year, with a closure rate of 70% for small brands [2] - The delivery market is becoming increasingly competitive, with platforms offering substantial subsidies to attract customers, leading to a shift in consumer behavior from dine-in to takeout [10][16] Financial Implications - Franchisees face high initial costs, including an 80,000 yuan franchise fee and additional expenses for renovations and equipment, totaling over 100,000 yuan [2][3] - The aggressive pricing strategies employed by delivery platforms result in reduced profit margins for franchise owners, often leading to losses despite high order volumes [8][12] - The cost of raw materials continues to rise, further squeezing profit margins for franchisees who are also burdened with increased labor costs due to higher order volumes [8][12] Market Dynamics - The competition among delivery platforms has led to a significant increase in order volumes, but the profitability of these orders is questionable due to high operational costs and platform fees [8][12] - Major brands benefit from economies of scale and established supply chains, allowing them to thrive in the current competitive landscape, while smaller brands struggle to keep up [13][14] - The shift towards delivery has altered consumer habits, with many customers now accustomed to lower prices, which may affect their willingness to pay higher prices for dine-in experiences in the future [14][18] Future Outlook - The industry is transitioning from a phase of capital consumption to one focused on value creation, with an emphasis on quality and health in food offerings [18] - As the subsidy wars cool down, businesses must adapt to a new reality where blind participation in price wars could lead to unsustainable practices [18][19] - The long-term success of the tea beverage market will depend on the ability of brands to build consumer trust through quality and service innovation rather than relying solely on price competition [18][19]