大摩预言：下周杰克逊霍尔央行年会上，鲍威尔会“放鹰”，抵制市场降息预期

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley warns that persistent service sector inflation, rather than tariffs, poses a significant risk to the market's expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1][3][8] Group 1: Market Expectations - Financial markets have locked in a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, driven by a weak July employment report and downward revisions of historical data [2][5] - The narrative formed around the expectation of a rate cut is based on the belief that as long as inflation data does not spike dramatically, a preventive rate cut is likely [2][5] Group 2: Inflation Analysis - Morgan Stanley identifies service sector inflation as the real issue, with July's core CPI rising from 2.9% to 3.1%, indicating stronger inflation driven by domestic factors rather than external tariffs [3][4] - The report highlights that service prices, excluding energy, increased by 0.4%, while tariff-affected goods only rose by 0.2%, suggesting a more persistent inflationary trend [3][4] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Fed, led by Chairman Powell, faces the challenge of managing market expectations while retaining policy flexibility, especially before the release of complete employment and inflation data [5][6] - If the Fed allows the market to price in a near-certain rate cut, avoiding a cut in September could lead to significant market turmoil, akin to a rate hike [6][8] Group 4: Signals from Fed Officials - Recent comments from historically dovish Fed officials, including Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, indicate a shift towards concern over persistent inflation, further complicating the Fed's position [6][7] - The divergence in views among Fed officials, with some expressing worries about inflation risks, adds to the complexity of the Fed's decision-making process [6][8] Group 5: Conclusion and Implications - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting is expected to be a critical moment for Powell to manage expectations and assert the Fed's policy authority, emphasizing that inflation concerns are more pressing than employment issues [8] - Investors should prepare for potential market corrections due to discrepancies in expectations regarding rate cuts, as Powell's forthcoming messages may call for patience until more data is available [8]